California vs. UCLA: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CALTeam statsUCLA
- Q4 10:12UCLABrittain Brown 31 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)10–34
- Q2 1:17UCLAKyle Philips 5 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)10–27
- Q2 5:49UCLAChase Cota 6 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Nicholas Barr-Mira PAT failed)10–20
- Q2 7:10CALChase Garbers 8 Yd Run (Dario Longhetto Kick)10–14
- Q2 11:45UCLACharles Njoku 27 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)3–14
- Q1 0:58UCLADorian Thompson-Robinson 2 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)3–7
- Q1 11:12CALDario Longhetto 31 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CAL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UCLA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.4 vs 3rd & 6.4
- PassChase Garbers 18/33, 122 YDS, 1 INT
- RushChristopher Brooks 8 CAR, 25 YDS
- RecCollin Moore 2 REC, 28 YDS
- PassDorian Thompson-Robinson 14/26, 196 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushDemetric Felton 25 CAR, 107 YDS
- RecGreg Dulcich 3 REC, 80 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUCLA up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 0:58UCLA +20%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 2 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
- Q2 11:45UCLA +19%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Charles Njoku for 27 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
- Q2 7:10CAL +18%
Chase Garbers run for 8 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)
- Q2 5:49UCLA +17%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Chase Cota for 6 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira PAT MISSED)
- Q2 1:17UCLA +13%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 5 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
- Q1 11:12CAL +8%
Dario Longhetto 31 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of California vs. UCLA?
California 10, UCLA 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CAL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CAL | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 176 | Total yards | 440 |
| 122 | Passing yards | 196 |
| 54 | Rushing yards | 244 |
| 11 | First downs | 23 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 18/34 | Comp/Att | 14/26 |
| 3.6 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 1.9 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-33 | Penalties | 6-50 |
| 26:18 | Possession | 33:42 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:32 UCLA punt on 4th & 5 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.28 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:12UCLABrittain Brown 31 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)10–34
- Q2 1:17UCLAKyle Philips 5 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)10–27
- Q2 5:49UCLAChase Cota 6 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Nicholas Barr-Mira PAT failed)10–20
- Q2 7:10CALChase Garbers 8 Yd Run (Dario Longhetto Kick)10–14
- Q2 11:45UCLACharles Njoku 27 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)3–14
- Q1 0:58UCLADorian Thompson-Robinson 2 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)3–7
- Q1 11:12CALDario Longhetto 31 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCLA Elo 1407, CAL Elo 1499 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCLA +1.3 (48% to win) — 2.2 points clear of UCLA's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#19 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #78 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →UCLA leads 58–35–1 · 31% have been one-possession games
| CAL | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.7 (#89) | CORE overall | +11.3 (#24) |
| -13 / -5 | offense / defense | +8 / -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →