Florida Atlantic vs. Southern Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FAUTeam statsUSM
- Q4 4:55USMKevin Perkins 3 Yd Run (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)31–45
- Q3 0:54FAUArmani-Eli Adams 43 Yd Fumble Return (Vladimir Rivas Kick)31–38
- Q3 3:39USMCamron Harrell 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)24–38
- Q3 3:53FAUJames Charles 1 Yd Run (Vladimir Rivas Kick)24–31
- Q3 11:08USMJason Brownlee 43 Yd pass from Trey Lowe (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)17–31
- Q2 0:08USMTim Jones 5 Yd pass from Trey Lowe (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)17–24
- Q2 4:39FAUJames Charles 12 Yd Run (Vladimir Rivas Kick)17–17
- Q2 8:54USMTrey Lowe 13 Yd Run (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)10–17
- Q2 11:18FAUVladimir Rivas 40 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 1:34USMBriggs Bourgeois 38 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 9:09USMFrank Gore Jr. 73 Yd Run (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:31FAUBrandon Robinson 20 Yd pass from Nick Tronti (Vladimir Rivas Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassNick Tronti 17/33, 162 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJames Charles 16 CAR, 79 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBrandon Robinson 5 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTrey Lowe 13/19, 209 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushFrank Gore Jr. 9 CAR, 111 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJason Brownlee 3 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSM up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 3:39USM +28%
Aaron Shahriari kickoff for 65 yds, Camron Harrell return for 100 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)
- Q3 11:08USM +26%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 43 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)
- Q2 0:08USM +26%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Tim Jones for 5 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)
- Q3 3:53FAU +23%
James Charles run for 1 yd for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)
- Q2 8:54USM +21%
Trey Lowe run for 13 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)
- Q2 4:39FAU +19%
James Charles run for 12 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. Southern Miss?
Florida Atlantic 31, Southern Miss 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FAU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FAU | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 326 | Total yards | 514 |
| 162 | Passing yards | 209 |
| 164 | Rushing yards | 305 |
| 19 | First downs | 22 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 17/34 | Comp/Att | 13/19 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 11.0 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 6.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 8-83 |
| 28:41 | Possession | 31:19 |
Costliest call
Q1 10:41 FAU punt on 4th & 2 at FAU 31. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.52 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:55USMKevin Perkins 3 Yd Run (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)31–45
- Q3 0:54FAUArmani-Eli Adams 43 Yd Fumble Return (Vladimir Rivas Kick)31–38
- Q3 3:39USMCamron Harrell 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)24–38
- Q3 3:53FAUJames Charles 1 Yd Run (Vladimir Rivas Kick)24–31
- Q3 11:08USMJason Brownlee 43 Yd pass from Trey Lowe (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)17–31
- Q2 0:08USMTim Jones 5 Yd pass from Trey Lowe (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)17–24
- Q2 4:39FAUJames Charles 12 Yd Run (Vladimir Rivas Kick)17–17
- Q2 8:54USMTrey Lowe 13 Yd Run (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)10–17
- Q2 11:18FAUVladimir Rivas 40 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 1:34USMBriggs Bourgeois 38 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 9:09USMFrank Gore Jr. 73 Yd Run (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:31FAUBrandon Robinson 20 Yd pass from Nick Tronti (Vladimir Rivas Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USM Elo 1226, FAU Elo 1596 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USM +12.4 (22% to win) — 2.9 points clear of FAU's market line of +9.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#37 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #41 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →| FAU | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.2 (#88) | CORE overall | -14.2 (#106) |
| -12 / -5 | offense / defense | -2 / +12 |
| 1.60 | points / drive | 2.22 |
| 1.50 | allowed / drive | 3.17 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →