Southern Illinois vs. Massachusetts: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Southern Illinois0-1
▸
Massachusetts0-1
Final
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
SOUTTeam statsMASS
502Total yards321
265Pass198
237Rush123
21First downs15
5-113rd down6-17
1Turnovers2
32:55Possession27:05
- Q4 2:44MASSTaylor Edwards 7 Yd pass from Andrew Brito (Cooper Garcia Kick)45–20
- Q4 7:35SOUTRomeir Elliott 3 Yd pass from Stone Labanowitz (Griffin Cerra Kick)45–13
- Q4 14:16SOUTNigel Kilby 13 Yd pass from Stone Labanowitz (Griffin Cerra Kick)38–13
- Q3 7:25SOUTJavon Williams Jr. 3 Yd Run (Griffin Cerra Kick)31–13
- Q3 11:47SOUTJavon Williams Jr. 64 Yd Run (Griffin Cerra Kick)24–13
- Q2 0:08SOUTD.J. Davis 32 Yd pass from Stone Labanowitz (Griffin Cerra Kick)17–13
- Q2 1:26MASSKevin Brown 2 Yd Run (Cooper Garcia Kick)10–13
- Q2 3:19SOUTGriffin Cerra 39 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 14:34SOUTJavon Williams Jr. 85 Yd pass from Stone Labanowitz (Griffin Cerra Kick)7–6
- Q1 7:38MASSRandall West 4 Yd Run (Cooper Garcia PAT failed)0–6
How the model called it
Market line
MASS −6.5
Against the number
SOUT covered
line MASS −6.5
What the numbers say
- MASS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SOUT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.0 vs 3rd & 5.9
Kickoff161 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
MASS (top)SOUT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MASS 0%
Closing line
MASS −6.5
Closing total
79.5
Model line
—
Actual result
SOUT 45 – 20 MASS
consensus, liveMASS −6.5total 79.5
Southern Illinois
- PassStone Labanowitz 19/26, 265 YDS, 4 TD
- RushD.J. Davis 21 CAR, 85 YDS
- RecJavon Williams Jr. 3 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD
Massachusetts
- PassRandall West 9/17, 125 YDS, 1 INT
- RushBilal Ally 16 CAR, 87 YDS
- RecZak Simon 3 REC, 60 YDS
23.9sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
144
Points / snap
0.45
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSOUT up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
SOUT went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Southern Illinois vs. Massachusetts?
Southern Illinois 45, Massachusetts 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MASS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
SOUT
MASS
44%
Success rate
37%
0.62
EPA / pass
0.20
0.14
EPA / rush
-0.04
46%
Early-down success
38%
56%
Pass success
33%
37%
Rush success
39%
17%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
8%
19%
Stuffed rush rate
21%
39%
Pass rate
41%
5.9
Avg 3rd-down distance
9.0
SOUT
5.9 yards to go on 3rd down
70 scrimmage snaps
MASS
9.0 yards to go on 3rd down
74 scrimmage snaps
| SOUT | MASS | |
|---|---|---|
| 502 | Total yards | 321 |
| 265 | Passing yards | 198 |
| 237 | Rushing yards | 123 |
| 21 | First downs | 15 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 19/26 | Comp/Att | 15/27 |
| 10.2 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-23 | Penalties | 10-69 |
| 32:55 | Possession | 27:05 |
SOUT
6/6 with the model
nothing given up
MASS
8/9 with the model
−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q3 4:47 MASS go for it on 4th & 7 at MASS 49. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishSOUT 7/14 scoring drives← own end zone →MASS 3/14 scoring drives
MASSDOWNS10 pl, 55 yds· own 35Q1
SOUTPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 10Q1
MASSTD8 pl, 25 yds· opp 25Q1
SOUTDOWNS13 pl, 65 yds· own 8Q1
MASSPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 27Q1
SOUTTD1 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q2
MASSPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 28Q2
SOUTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q2
MASSPUNT4 pl, 12 yds· own 26Q2
SOUTPUNT6 pl, 32 yds· own 17Q2
MASSPUNT3 pl, -14 yds· own 17Q2
SOUTFG7 pl, 11 yds· opp 33Q2
MASSTD6 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2
SOUTTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
MASSEND1 pl, 6 yds· own 49Q2
SOUTFUM2 pl, 10 yds· own 10Q3
MASSINT7 pl, 3 yds· opp 20Q3
SOUTTD1 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q3
MASSINT3 pl, 4 yds· own 15Q3
SOUTTD6 pl, 25 yds· opp 25Q3
MASSDOWNS6 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q3
SOUTDOWNS4 pl, 8 yds· opp 49Q3
MASSDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 41Q3
SOUTTD5 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ3
MASSPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 20Q4
SOUTTD9 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q4
MASSTD13 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q4
SOUTEND4 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q4
- Q4 2:44MASSTaylor Edwards 7 Yd pass from Andrew Brito (Cooper Garcia Kick)45–20
- Q4 7:35SOUTRomeir Elliott 3 Yd pass from Stone Labanowitz (Griffin Cerra Kick)45–13
- Q4 14:16SOUTNigel Kilby 13 Yd pass from Stone Labanowitz (Griffin Cerra Kick)38–13
- Q3 7:25SOUTJavon Williams Jr. 3 Yd Run (Griffin Cerra Kick)31–13
- Q3 11:47SOUTJavon Williams Jr. 64 Yd Run (Griffin Cerra Kick)24–13
- Q2 0:08SOUTD.J. Davis 32 Yd pass from Stone Labanowitz (Griffin Cerra Kick)17–13
- Q2 1:26MASSKevin Brown 2 Yd Run (Cooper Garcia Kick)10–13
- Q2 3:19SOUTGriffin Cerra 39 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 14:34SOUTJavon Williams Jr. 85 Yd pass from Stone Labanowitz (Griffin Cerra Kick)7–6
- Q1 7:38MASSRandall West 4 Yd Run (Cooper Garcia PAT failed)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
The matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSouthern Illinois were +6.5 — a 34% shot
#12 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #66 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →