UAB vs. Coastal Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UABTeam statsCCU
- Q4 3:00CCUTorrance Marable 34 Yd Run (Myles Prosser Kick)24–47
- Q4 3:17CCUTorrance Marable 2 Yd Run (Myles Prosser Kick)24–40
- Q4 11:14CCUAlex James 7 Yd pass from Kilton Anderson (Massimo Biscardi PAT failed)24–33
- Q3 7:04CCUMarcus Outlow 1 Yd Run (Massimo Biscardi Kick)24–27
- Q2 2:45UABNick Vogel 42 Yd Field Goal 24–20
- Q2 5:56CCUKilton Anderson 26 Yd Run (Massimo Biscardi PAT failed)21–20
- Q2 12:10CCUTorrance Marable 29 Yd pass from Kilton Anderson (Massimo Biscardi Kick)21–14
- Q2 13:35UABKendall Parham 64 Yd Run (Nick Vogel Kick)21–7
- Q1 3:42UABKingston Davis 14 Yd Run (Nick Vogel Kick)14–7
- Q1 9:06UABA.J. Erdely 4 Yd Run (Nick Vogel Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:17CCUMarcus Outlow 60 Yd Run (Massimo Biscardi Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UAB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CCU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.6 vs 3rd & 6.2
- PassA.J. Erdely 12/26, 149 YDS, 1 INT
- RushSpencer Brown 20 CAR, 94 YDS
- RecKendall Parham 3 REC, 65 YDS
- PassKilton Anderson 11/18, 167 YDS, 2 TD
- RushMarcus Outlow 20 CAR, 140 YDS, 2 TD
- RecKy'Jon Tyler 3 REC, 63 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCCU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:14CCU +25%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Alex James for 7 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi PAT MISSED)
- Q3 7:04CCU +24%
Marcus Outlow run for 1 yd for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
- Q2 5:56CCU +21%
Kilton Anderson run for 26 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi PAT MISSED)
- Q1 3:42UAB +18%
Kingston Davis run for 14 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK)
- Q1 14:17CCU +17%
Marcus Outlow run for 60 yds for a TD COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UAB 8 (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
- Q1 9:06UAB +17%
A.J. Erdely run for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of UAB vs. Coastal Carolina?
UAB 24, Coastal Carolina 47.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UAB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UAB | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 435 | Total yards | 463 |
| 149 | Passing yards | 167 |
| 286 | Rushing yards | 296 |
| 26 | First downs | 25 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 7-10 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 12/27 | Comp/Att | 11/18 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 9.3 |
| 7.0 | Yards per rush | 6.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 15-143 | Penalties | 5-55 |
| 28:55 | Possession | 31:05 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:58 CCU punt on 4th & 5 at UAB 36. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.00 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:00CCUTorrance Marable 34 Yd Run (Myles Prosser Kick)24–47
- Q4 3:17CCUTorrance Marable 2 Yd Run (Myles Prosser Kick)24–40
- Q4 11:14CCUAlex James 7 Yd pass from Kilton Anderson (Massimo Biscardi PAT failed)24–33
- Q3 7:04CCUMarcus Outlow 1 Yd Run (Massimo Biscardi Kick)24–27
- Q2 2:45UABNick Vogel 42 Yd Field Goal 24–20
- Q2 5:56CCUKilton Anderson 26 Yd Run (Massimo Biscardi PAT failed)21–20
- Q2 12:10CCUTorrance Marable 29 Yd pass from Kilton Anderson (Massimo Biscardi Kick)21–14
- Q2 13:35UABKendall Parham 64 Yd Run (Nick Vogel Kick)21–7
- Q1 3:42UABKingston Davis 14 Yd Run (Nick Vogel Kick)14–7
- Q1 9:06UABA.J. Erdely 4 Yd Run (Nick Vogel Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:17CCUMarcus Outlow 60 Yd Run (Massimo Biscardi Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CCU Elo 1253, UAB Elo 1382 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CCU +2.8 (44% to win) — 6.2 points clear of CCU's market line of +9. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#21 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #48 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →| UAB | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.7 (#27) | CORE overall | -16.7 (#110) |
| +5 / -7 | offense / defense | +1 / +17 |
| 2.39 | points / drive | 2.15 |
| 1.49 | allowed / drive | 3.12 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →