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Which is the best college football conference in 2018?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

CORE offense · 2018

FBS medianSECBig 12Big TenPac-12Sun BeltACCFBS IndependentsAmerican Athlet…Mountain WestMid-AmericanConference USA

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
SEC147.68.5Alabama 29.2
Big 12104.99.7Oklahoma 34.4
Big Ten142.58.6Ohio State 14.8
Pac-12121.16.6Washington State 10.1
Sun Belt100.0853.7Louisiana 7.8
ACC14-0.9557.5Clemson 16.7
FBS Independents6-2.410.6Notre Dame 6.7
American Athletic12-3.314.7UCF 13.3
Mountain West12-3.511.9Utah State 11.1
Mid-American12-4.116.2Ohio 11.9
Conference USA14-7.013.5UAB 4.6

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.