UCLA vs. USC: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UCLATeam statsUSC
- Q4 3:52USCAustin Jones 7 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)38–20
- Q4 9:06UCLAHudson Habermehl 15 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (Blake Glessner Kick)38–13
- Q3 1:21UCLABlake Glessner 35 Yd Field Goal 31–13
- Q3 3:51USCDenis Lynch 34 Yd Field Goal 28–13
- Q3 9:29UCLAAlex Johnson 11 Yd Fumble Return (Blake Glessner Kick)28–10
- Q3 9:45UCLATJ Harden 7 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (Blake Glessner Kick)21–10
- Q2 0:02USCDenis Lynch 34 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 14:01USCBrenden Rice 74 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)14–7
- Q1 2:46UCLAHudson Habermehl 14 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (Blake Glessner Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:15UCLATJ Harden 1 Yd Run (Blake Glessner Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UCLA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.9 vs 3rd & 5.9
- USC lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 33% success rate
- PassEthan Garbers 18/31, 155 YDS, 3 TD
- RushTJ Harden 22 CAR, 142 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLogan Loya 9 REC, 60 YDS
- PassCaleb Williams 31/42, 384 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushMarShawn Lloyd 8 CAR, 17 YDS
- RecBrenden Rice 8 REC, 147 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUCLA up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 9:45UCLA +24%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to TJ Harden for 7 yds for a TD (Blake Glessner KICK)
- Q2 14:01USC +19%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 74 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)
- Q1 2:46UCLA +19%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for 14 yds for a TD (Blake Glessner KICK)
- Q1 9:15UCLA +18%
TJ Harden run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Glessner KICK)
- Q3 9:29UCLA +11%
Alex Johnson 11 Yd Fumble Return (Blake Glessner Kick)
- Q2 0:02USC +10%
Denis Lynch 34 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of UCLA vs. USC?
UCLA 38, USC 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UCLA | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 354 | Total yards | 387 |
| 155 | Passing yards | 384 |
| 199 | Rushing yards | 3 |
| 19 | First downs | 17 |
| 13-20 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 18/31 | Comp/Att | 31/44 |
| 5.0 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 0.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-50 | Penalties | 6-52 |
| 32:34 | Possession | 27:26 |
Costliest call
Q1 1:12 UCLA punt on 4th & 7 at USC 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.42 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:52USCAustin Jones 7 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)38–20
- Q4 9:06UCLAHudson Habermehl 15 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (Blake Glessner Kick)38–13
- Q3 1:21UCLABlake Glessner 35 Yd Field Goal 31–13
- Q3 3:51USCDenis Lynch 34 Yd Field Goal 28–13
- Q3 9:29UCLAAlex Johnson 11 Yd Fumble Return (Blake Glessner Kick)28–10
- Q3 9:45UCLATJ Harden 7 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (Blake Glessner Kick)21–10
- Q2 0:02USCDenis Lynch 34 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q2 14:01USCBrenden Rice 74 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)14–7
- Q1 2:46UCLAHudson Habermehl 14 Yd pass from Ethan Garbers (Blake Glessner Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:15UCLATJ Harden 1 Yd Run (Blake Glessner Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1743, UCLA Elo 1607 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USC -7.8 (71% to win) — 2.3 points clear of USC's market line of -5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#40 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #74 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →USC leads 54–34–7 · USC has won 2 straight · 46% have been one-possession games
| UCLA | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.3 (#34) | CORE overall | +13.8 (#27) |
| -5 / -15 | offense / defense | +20 / +6 |
| 1.92 | points / drive | 3.35 |
| 1.43 | allowed / drive | 2.57 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →