Chattanooga vs. Mercer: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Chattanooga
▸
Mercer0-1
Final
Five Star Stadium at the Moye ComplexConference game
CHATTeam statsMERC
351Total yards280
244Pass280
107Rush0
18First downs12
5-173rd down4-13
0Turnovers3
35:44Possession24:16
- Q4 3:52CHATClayton Crile 27 Yd Field Goal 22–10
- Q3 2:35MERCReice Griffith 36 Yd Field Goal 19–10
- Q3 6:55CHATSam Phillips 30 Yd pass from Chase Artopoeus (Clayton Crile Kick)19–7
- Q3 10:26MERCTy James 10 Yd pass from Carter Peevy (Reice Griffith Kick)12–7
- Q2 0:09CHATClayton Crile 45 Yd Field Goal 12–0
- Q2 4:23CHATClayton Crile 37 Yd Field Goal 9–0
- Q1 3:42CHATClayton Crile 37 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 11:04CHATClayton Crile 32 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
Market line
MERC −1
Against the number
CHAT covered
line MERC −1
What the numbers say
- MERC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CHAT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 5.8
- MERC lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 34% success rate
Kickoff157 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
MERC (top)CHAT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MERC 0%
Closing line
MERC −1
Closing total
50.0
Model line
—
Actual result
CHAT 22 – 10 MERC
Chattanooga
- PassChase Artopoeus 19/28, 244 YDS, 1 TD
- RushGino Appleberry 19 CAR, 57 YDS
- RecJamoi Mayes 9 REC, 119 YDS
Mercer
- PassCarter Peevy 19/31, 280 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushMicah Bell 8 CAR, 41 YDS
- RecTy James 7 REC, 162 YDS, 1 TD
26.8sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
134
Points / snap
0.24
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCHAT up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,694 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
86%
CHAT went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Chattanooga vs. Mercer?
Chattanooga 22, Mercer 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MERC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
CHAT
MERC
40%
Success rate
34%
0.39
EPA / pass
0.13
-0.15
EPA / rush
-0.54
44%
Early-down success
36%
58%
Pass success
39%
26%
Rush success
28%
16%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
13%
24%
Stuffed rush rate
56%
43%
Pass rate
59%
5.8
Avg 3rd-down distance
8.3
CHAT
5.8 yards to go on 3rd down
73 scrimmage snaps
MERC
8.3 yards to go on 3rd down
61 scrimmage snaps
| CHAT | MERC | |
|---|---|---|
| 351 | Total yards | 280 |
| 244 | Passing yards | 280 |
| 107 | Rushing yards | 0 |
| 18 | First downs | 12 |
| 5-17 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 19/28 | Comp/Att | 19/31 |
| 8.7 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 0.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-35 | Penalties | 4-50 |
| 35:44 | Possession | 24:16 |
CHAT
7/10 with the model
−3.1 pts · −0.0% win prob
MERC
5/9 with the model
−1.4 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q1 6:27 CHAT punt on 4th & 1 at MERC 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.94 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishCHAT 6/14 scoring drives← own end zone →MERC 2/15 scoring drives
CHATFG8 pl, 37 yds· own 49Q1
MERCPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 35Q1
CHATPUNT7 pl, 36 yds· own 22Q1
MERCDOWNS4 pl, 4 yds· own 20Q1
CHATFG4 pl, 4 yds· opp 24Q1
MERCPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 44Q1
CHATPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q1
MERCPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 44Q1
CHATPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 20Q2
MERCPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 18Q2
CHATPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 22Q2
MERCPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 18Q2
CHATFG5 pl, 22 yds· opp 42Q2
MERCFUM6 pl, 52 yds· own 35Q2
CHATFG10 pl, 59 yds· own 13Q2
MERCEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 37Q2
MERCPUNT4 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q3
CHATPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 1Q3
MERCTD5 pl, 33 yds· opp 33Q3
CHATTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
MERCFG10 pl, 54 yds· own 27Q3
CHATDOWNS8 pl, 38 yds· own 24Q3
MERCPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 38Q4
CHATPUNT4 pl, 22 yds· own 24Q4
MERCFUM4 pl, 53 yds· own 9Q4
CHATFG8 pl, 52 yds· own 38Q4
MERCINT4 pl, 42 yds· own 25Q4
CHATPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· opp 42Q4
MERCEND2 pl, 1 yds· own 10Q4
- Q4 3:52CHATClayton Crile 27 Yd Field Goal 22–10
- Q3 2:35MERCReice Griffith 36 Yd Field Goal 19–10
- Q3 6:55CHATSam Phillips 30 Yd pass from Chase Artopoeus (Clayton Crile Kick)19–7
- Q3 10:26MERCTy James 10 Yd pass from Carter Peevy (Reice Griffith Kick)12–7
- Q2 0:09CHATClayton Crile 45 Yd Field Goal 12–0
- Q2 4:23CHATClayton Crile 37 Yd Field Goal 9–0
- Q1 3:42CHATClayton Crile 37 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 11:04CHATClayton Crile 32 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →