NC State vs. Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NCSUTeam statsUVA
- Q4 1:49NCSUZonovan Knight 2 Yd Run (Christopher Dunn Kick)38–21
- Q4 6:08UVALavel Davis Jr. 5 Yd pass from Lindell Stone (Brian Delaney Kick)31–21
- Q4 11:10NCSUAlim McNeill 18 Yd Interception Return (Christopher Dunn Kick)31–14
- Q3 2:08UVATony Poljan 1 Yd pass from Lindell Stone (Brian Delaney Kick)24–14
- Q2 0:15UVABilly Kemp IV 2 Yd pass from Lindell Stone (Brian Delaney Kick)24–7
- Q2 2:03NCSUZonovan Knight 35 Yd Run (Christopher Dunn Kick)24–0
- Q2 5:49NCSUChristopher Dunn 36 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 1:32NCSUCary Angeline 32 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Christopher Dunn Kick)14–0
- Q1 6:01NCSUTrent Pennix 5 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Christopher Dunn Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NCSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 33% success rate
- PassDevin Leary 11/25, 184 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushBam Knight 18 CAR, 101 YDS, 2 TD
- RecEmeka Emezie 3 REC, 54 YDS
- PassLindell Stone 30/54, 240 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushShane Simpson 7 CAR, 37 YDS
- RecTerrell Jana 9 REC, 111 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNCSU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 6:01NCSU +20%
Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 5 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) (Christopher Dunn KICK)
- Q1 1:32NCSU +19%
Devin Leary pass complete to Cary Angeline for 32 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
- Q3 2:08UVA +17%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Tony Poljan for 1 yd for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
- Q4 6:08NCSU +16%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the Virg 42
- Q2 2:03NCSU +13%
Zonovan Knight run for 35 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
- Q3 2:08NCSU +13%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to C.J. Riley
FAQ
What was the final score of NC State vs. Virginia?
NC State 38, Virginia 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UVA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NCSU | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 363 | Total yards | 405 |
| 184 | Passing yards | 323 |
| 179 | Rushing yards | 82 |
| 17 | First downs | 26 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 4-18 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 3-5 |
| 11/25 | Comp/Att | 37/64 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 5.0 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 2.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 11-100 | Penalties | 6-56 |
| 28:06 | Possession | 31:54 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:59 NCSU punt on 4th & 5 at UVA 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.67 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:49NCSUZonovan Knight 2 Yd Run (Christopher Dunn Kick)38–21
- Q4 6:08UVALavel Davis Jr. 5 Yd pass from Lindell Stone (Brian Delaney Kick)31–21
- Q4 11:10NCSUAlim McNeill 18 Yd Interception Return (Christopher Dunn Kick)31–14
- Q3 2:08UVATony Poljan 1 Yd pass from Lindell Stone (Brian Delaney Kick)24–14
- Q2 0:15UVABilly Kemp IV 2 Yd pass from Lindell Stone (Brian Delaney Kick)24–7
- Q2 2:03NCSUZonovan Knight 35 Yd Run (Christopher Dunn Kick)24–0
- Q2 5:49NCSUChristopher Dunn 36 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 1:32NCSUCary Angeline 32 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Christopher Dunn Kick)14–0
- Q1 6:01NCSUTrent Pennix 5 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Christopher Dunn Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UVA Elo 1626, NCSU Elo 1339 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UVA -13.9 (82% to win) — 6.4 points clear of UVA's market line of -7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#32 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #56 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →NC State leads 38–23 · 46% have been one-possession games
| NCSU | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.4 (#55) | CORE overall | -1.6 (#71) |
| -1 / -4 | offense / defense | -3 / -1 |
| 2.34 | points / drive | 2.16 |
| 2.14 | allowed / drive | 2.47 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →