Ball State vs. Buffalo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BALLTeam statsBUF
- Q3 1:16BUFKevin Marks Jr. 67 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)38–28
- Q3 9:10BALLJacob Lewis 21 Yd Field Goal 38–21
- Q2 0:48BALLChristian Albright 34 Yd Fumble Return (Jacob Lewis Kick)35–21
- Q2 1:30BALLJalen McGaughy 56 Yd pass from Drew Plitt (Jacob Lewis Kick)28–21
- Q2 5:55BALLJustin Hall 9 Yd pass from Drew Plitt (Jacob Lewis Kick)21–21
- Q2 7:31BUFKyle Vantrease 1 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)14–21
- Q2 8:49BALLDrew Plitt 1 Yd Run (Jacob Lewis Kick)14–14
- Q1 3:41BUFTrevor Wilson 24 Yd pass from Kyle Vantrease (Alex McNulty Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:47BALLYo'Heinz Tyler 10 Yd pass from Drew Plitt (Jack Knight Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:59BUFJaret Patterson 3 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDrew Plitt 20/32, 263 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushTye Evans 18 CAR, 94 YDS
- RecYo'Heinz Tyler 6 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKyle Vantrease 29/42, 365 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKevin Marks Jr. 9 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAntonio Nunn 13 REC, 182 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBALL up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:30BALL +24%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 56 yds for a TD, (Jacob Lewis KICK)
- Q2 0:48BALL +22%
Christian Albright 34 Yd Fumble Return (Jacob Lewis Kick)
- Q3 1:16BUF +19%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 67 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
- Q2 7:31BUF +18%
Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)
- Q2 5:55BALL +18%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 9 yds for a TD, (Jacob Lewis KICK)
- Q2 8:49BALL +17%
Drew Plitt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jacob Lewis KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Ball State vs. Buffalo?
Ball State 38, Buffalo 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BUF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BALL | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 429 | Total yards | 499 |
| 263 | Passing yards | 365 |
| 166 | Rushing yards | 134 |
| 22 | First downs | 23 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 20/32 | Comp/Att | 29/42 |
| 8.2 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 3-35 |
| 32:39 | Possession | 27:21 |
Costliest call
Q4 5:01 BALL punt on 4th & 4 at BUF 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.42 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 1:16BUFKevin Marks Jr. 67 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)38–28
- Q3 9:10BALLJacob Lewis 21 Yd Field Goal 38–21
- Q2 0:48BALLChristian Albright 34 Yd Fumble Return (Jacob Lewis Kick)35–21
- Q2 1:30BALLJalen McGaughy 56 Yd pass from Drew Plitt (Jacob Lewis Kick)28–21
- Q2 5:55BALLJustin Hall 9 Yd pass from Drew Plitt (Jacob Lewis Kick)21–21
- Q2 7:31BUFKyle Vantrease 1 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)14–21
- Q2 8:49BALLDrew Plitt 1 Yd Run (Jacob Lewis Kick)14–14
- Q1 3:41BUFTrevor Wilson 24 Yd pass from Kyle Vantrease (Alex McNulty Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:47BALLYo'Heinz Tyler 10 Yd pass from Drew Plitt (Jack Knight Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:59BUFJaret Patterson 3 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BUF Elo 1747, BALL Elo 1504 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects BUF -9.7 (75% to win) — 2.8 points clear of BALL's market line of -12.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#40 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #28 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds · #34 of 47 in 2020 by biggest poll gap.
The 2020 upset archive →Ball State leads 11–3 · 29% have been one-possession games
| BALL | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.8 (#35) | CORE overall | +17.7 (#11) |
| +6 / -3 | offense / defense | +12 / -6 |
| 2.83 | points / drive | 3.49 |
| 1.90 | allowed / drive | 1.99 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →