Arkansas State vs. Georgia State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARSTTeam statsGAST
- Q4 2:05GASTDestin Coates 2 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)38–52
- Q4 4:27ARSTBlake Grupe 44 Yd Field Goal 38–45
- Q4 6:30GASTDestin Coates 1 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)35–45
- Q4 10:30ARSTOmar Bayless 5 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)35–38
- Q3 4:21ARSTOmar Bayless 4 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)28–38
- Q3 10:26GASTDan Ellington 10 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)21–38
- Q2 0:47ARSTOmar Bayless 31 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)21–31
- Q2 1:38GASTSam Pinckney 11 Yd pass from Dan Ellington (Brandon Wright Kick)14–31
- Q2 4:40ARSTMarcel Murray 28 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)14–24
- Q2 5:44GASTBrandon Wright 43 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q2 8:00ARSTKirk Merritt 24 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)7–21
- Q2 8:56GASTSeth Paige 7 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)0–21
- Q2 14:55GASTDestin Coates 27 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:41GASTTra Barnett 3 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and GAST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.4 vs 3rd & 7.4
- PassLayne Hatcher 21/32, 299 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- RushMarcel Murray 6 CAR, 58 YDS, 1 TD
- RecOmar Bayless 8 REC, 154 YDS, 3 TD
- PassDan Ellington 29/41, 382 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTra Barnett 14 CAR, 139 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSam Pinckney 9 REC, 120 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGAST up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 6:30GAST +32%
Destin Coates run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
- Q4 10:30ARST +31%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 5 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)
- Q2 1:38GAST +24%
Dan Ellington pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 11 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
- Q2 14:55GAST +21%
Destin Coates run for 27 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
- Q4 2:05GAST +19%
Destin Coates run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
- Q3 10:26GAST +19%
Dan Ellington run for 10 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. Georgia State?
Arkansas State 38, Georgia State 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARST | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 421 | Total yards | 722 |
| 306 | Passing yards | 382 |
| 115 | Rushing yards | 340 |
| 22 | First downs | 39 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 22/34 | Comp/Att | 29/41 |
| 9.0 | Yards per pass | 9.3 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-85 | Penalties | 10-124 |
| 20:41 | Possession | 39:19 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:50 GAST go for it on 4th & 19 at ARST 37. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:05GASTDestin Coates 2 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)38–52
- Q4 4:27ARSTBlake Grupe 44 Yd Field Goal 38–45
- Q4 6:30GASTDestin Coates 1 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)35–45
- Q4 10:30ARSTOmar Bayless 5 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)35–38
- Q3 4:21ARSTOmar Bayless 4 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)28–38
- Q3 10:26GASTDan Ellington 10 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)21–38
- Q2 0:47ARSTOmar Bayless 31 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)21–31
- Q2 1:38GASTSam Pinckney 11 Yd pass from Dan Ellington (Brandon Wright Kick)14–31
- Q2 4:40ARSTMarcel Murray 28 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)14–24
- Q2 5:44GASTBrandon Wright 43 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q2 8:00ARSTKirk Merritt 24 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)7–21
- Q2 8:56GASTSeth Paige 7 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)0–21
- Q2 14:55GASTDestin Coates 27 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:41GASTTra Barnett 3 Yd Run (Brandon Wright Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GAST Elo 1143, ARST Elo 1445 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GAST +9.7 (27% to win) — 3.2 points clear of ARST's market line of +6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#55 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #68 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Arkansas State leads 7–2 · 44% have been one-possession games
| ARST | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.9 (#75) | CORE overall | -9.5 (#99) |
| -1 / +3 | offense / defense | +2 / +12 |
| 2.35 | points / drive | 2.49 |
| 2.46 | allowed / drive | 2.99 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →