Wake Forest vs. NC State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WAKETeam statsNCSU
- Q4 0:30WAKEJack Freudenthal 32 Yd pass from Jamie Newman (Nick Sciba Kick)27–23
- Q4 6:07WAKEGreg Dortch 19 Yd pass from Jamie Newman (Nick Sciba Kick)20–23
- Q4 14:53NCSUEmeka Emezie 35 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Christopher Dunn Kick)13–23
- Q3 2:05WAKEAlex Bachman 38 Yd pass from Jamie Newman (Nick Sciba Kick)13–16
- Q3 3:40NCSUChristopher Dunn 23 Yd Field Goal 6–16
- Q3 11:47WAKENick Sciba 34 Yd Field Goal 6–13
- Q2 4:36NCSURyan Finley 2 Yd Run (Christopher Dunn Kick)3–13
- Q2 9:47WAKENick Sciba 47 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 0:52NCSUChristopher Dunn 23 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 12:42NCSUChristopher Dunn 29 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJamie Newman 22/33, 297 YDS, 3 TD
- RushCade Carney 12 CAR, 68 YDS
- RecSage Surratt 8 REC, 109 YDS
- PassRyan Finley 35/52, 374 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushReggie Gallaspy II 14 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecKelvin Harmon 15 REC, 134 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNCSU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:30WAKE +81%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 32 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
- Q4 6:07WAKE +26%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Greg Dortch for 19 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
- Q3 2:05WAKE +19%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Alex Bachman for 38 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
- Q4 5:27NCSU +16%
Person Jr., Ricky rush for 11 yards to the WAKEFOREST49, PENALTY NCSTATE holding (Autenrieth, Dylan) 10 yards to the NCSTATE30, NO PLAY
- Q4 14:53NCSU +14%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 35 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
- Q2 4:36NCSU +11%
Ryan Finley run for 2 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Wake Forest vs. NC State?
Wake Forest 27, NC State 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NCSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WAKE | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 435 | Total yards | 421 |
| 297 | Passing yards | 374 |
| 138 | Rushing yards | 47 |
| 22 | First downs | 23 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 22/33 | Comp/Att | 35/53 |
| 9.0 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 1.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-50 | Penalties | 6-55 |
| 28:12 | Possession | 31:48 |
Costliest call
Q2 13:10 NCSU punt on 4th & 3 at WAKE 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.72 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:30WAKEJack Freudenthal 32 Yd pass from Jamie Newman (Nick Sciba Kick)27–23
- Q4 6:07WAKEGreg Dortch 19 Yd pass from Jamie Newman (Nick Sciba Kick)20–23
- Q4 14:53NCSUEmeka Emezie 35 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Christopher Dunn Kick)13–23
- Q3 2:05WAKEAlex Bachman 38 Yd pass from Jamie Newman (Nick Sciba Kick)13–16
- Q3 3:40NCSUChristopher Dunn 23 Yd Field Goal 6–16
- Q3 11:47WAKENick Sciba 34 Yd Field Goal 6–13
- Q2 4:36NCSURyan Finley 2 Yd Run (Christopher Dunn Kick)3–13
- Q2 9:47WAKENick Sciba 47 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 0:52NCSUChristopher Dunn 23 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 12:42NCSUChristopher Dunn 29 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NCSU Elo 1677, WAKE Elo 1413 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NCSU -13 (81% to win) — 5.5 points clear of WAKE's market line of -18.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#57 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #6 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds · #44 of 64 in 2018 by biggest poll gap.
The 2018 upset archive →NC State leads 70–43–5 · 42% have been one-possession games
| WAKE | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.7 (#70) | CORE overall | +7.0 (#35) |
| -2 / -1 | offense / defense | +6 / -1 |
| 2.04 | points / drive | 2.85 |
| 2.38 | allowed / drive | 1.99 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →