Memphis vs. Tulane: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MEMTeam statsTULN
- Q4 2:01MEMRiley Patterson 43 Yd Field Goal 24–40
- Q4 7:05MEMTony Pollard 2 Yd pass from Brady White (Riley Patterson Kick)21–40
- Q4 8:56TULNDarius Bradwell 25 Yd Run (Merek Glover Kick)14–40
- Q4 11:50TULNCorey Dauphine 46 Yd Run (Merek Glover Kick)14–33
- Q4 14:37TULNTeam Safety 14–26
- Q3 0:00TULNDarnell Mooney 51 Yd pass from Justin McMillan (Merek Glover Kick)14–24
- Q3 12:50MEMDarrell Henderson 43 Yd pass from Brady White (Riley Patterson Kick)14–17
- Q2 0:00TULNMerek Glover 20 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q1 5:40TULNDarius Bradwell 53 Yd Run (Merek Glover Kick)7–14
- Q1 9:04MEMDarrell Henderson 47 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:16TULNCorey Dauphine 2 Yd Run (Merek Glover Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MEM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TULN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.6 vs 3rd & 7.8
- MEM lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 19% explosive on a 31% success rate
- PassBrady White 14/30, 246 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDarrell Henderson Jr. 7 CAR, 51 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDamonte Coxie 5 REC, 67 YDS
- PassJonathan Banks 12/21, 127 YDS
- RushDarius Bradwell 19 CAR, 143 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDarnell Mooney 4 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTULN up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 0:00TULN +31%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 51 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)
- Q3 12:50MEM +24%
Brady White pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 43 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)
- Q4 11:50TULN +17%
Corey Dauphine run for 46 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)
- Q1 5:40TULN +16%
Darius Bradwell run for 53 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)
- Q1 9:04MEM +16%
Darrell Henderson run for 47 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)
- Q1 9:16TULN +15%
Corey Dauphine run for 2 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Memphis vs. Tulane?
Memphis 24, Tulane 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MEM | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| 277 | Total yards | 496 |
| 246 | Passing yards | 178 |
| 31 | Rushing yards | 318 |
| 13 | First downs | 22 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 10-17 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 14/30 | Comp/Att | 13/22 |
| 8.2 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 1.5 | Yards per rush | 5.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-20 | Penalties | 9-95 |
| 20:24 | Possession | 39:36 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:58 MEM punt on 4th & 1 at MEM 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.93 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:01MEMRiley Patterson 43 Yd Field Goal 24–40
- Q4 7:05MEMTony Pollard 2 Yd pass from Brady White (Riley Patterson Kick)21–40
- Q4 8:56TULNDarius Bradwell 25 Yd Run (Merek Glover Kick)14–40
- Q4 11:50TULNCorey Dauphine 46 Yd Run (Merek Glover Kick)14–33
- Q4 14:37TULNTeam Safety 14–26
- Q3 0:00TULNDarnell Mooney 51 Yd pass from Justin McMillan (Merek Glover Kick)14–24
- Q3 12:50MEMDarrell Henderson 43 Yd pass from Brady White (Riley Patterson Kick)14–17
- Q2 0:00TULNMerek Glover 20 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q1 5:40TULNDarius Bradwell 53 Yd Run (Merek Glover Kick)7–14
- Q1 9:04MEMDarrell Henderson 47 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:16TULNCorey Dauphine 2 Yd Run (Merek Glover Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TULN Elo 1334, MEM Elo 1755 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TULN +14.4 (18% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#31 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #17 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →Memphis leads 25–16–1 · 31% have been one-possession games
| MEM | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.5 (#36) | CORE overall | -2.9 (#81) |
| +8 / +1 | offense / defense | -7 / -4 |
| 2.91 | points / drive | 1.81 |
| 2.40 | allowed / drive | 2.08 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →