USC vs. Boston College: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USCTeam statsBC
- Q4 1:18USCDarreus Rogers 14 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick)31–37
- Q4 3:30BCTyler Murphy 66 Yd Run (Joey Launceford Kick)24–38
- Q4 4:32USCNelson Agholor 10 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick)24–30
- Q4 7:42BCJoey Launceford 25 Yd Field Goal 17–30
- Q3 7:06BCJon Hilliman 1 Yd Run (Joey Launceford Kick)17–27
- Q2 1:27BCSherman Alston 54 Yd Run (Joey Launceford Kick)17–20
- Q2 10:08BCJon Hilliman 3 Yd Run (Joey Launceford Kick)17–13
- Q2 14:08USCJavorius Allen 51 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick)17–6
- Q2 14:56BCTyler Rouse 4 Yd Run (Joey Launceford PAT failed)10–6
- Q1 3:16USCAndre Heidari 52 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 6:05USCGeorge Farmer 8 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USC lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassCody Kessler 31/41, 317 YDS, 4 TD
- RushJavorius Allen 15 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecJavorius Allen 9 REC, 118 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTyler Murphy 5/13, 54 YDS, 1 INT
- RushTyler Murphy 13 CAR, 191 YDS, 1 TD
- RecShakim Phillips 1 REC, 17 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBC up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 3:30BC +29%
Tyler Murphy run for 66 yds for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK)
- Q3 7:06BC +28%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK)
- Q2 1:27BC +25%
Sherman Alston run for 54 yds for a TD, (Joey Launceford KICK)
- Q4 4:32USC +19%
Cody Kessler pass complete to Nelson Agholor for 10 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)
- Q4 9:27BC +14%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the USC 7
- Q1 6:05USC +12%
Cody Kessler pass complete to George Farmer for 8 yds for a TD, (Andre Heidari KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of USC vs. Boston College?
USC 31, Boston College 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USC | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| 337 | Total yards | 506 |
| 317 | Passing yards | 54 |
| 20 | Rushing yards | 452 |
| 18 | First downs | 19 |
| 5-16 | 3rd down | 2-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 31/41 | Comp/Att | 5/14 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 3.9 |
| 0.7 | Yards per rush | 8.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-20 | Penalties | 2-32 |
| 27:57 | Possession | 31:54 |
Costliest call
Q2 7:51 USC punt on 4th & 1 at USC 19. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.03 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:18USCDarreus Rogers 14 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick)31–37
- Q4 3:30BCTyler Murphy 66 Yd Run (Joey Launceford Kick)24–38
- Q4 4:32USCNelson Agholor 10 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick)24–30
- Q4 7:42BCJoey Launceford 25 Yd Field Goal 17–30
- Q3 7:06BCJon Hilliman 1 Yd Run (Joey Launceford Kick)17–27
- Q2 1:27BCSherman Alston 54 Yd Run (Joey Launceford Kick)17–20
- Q2 10:08BCJon Hilliman 3 Yd Run (Joey Launceford Kick)17–13
- Q2 14:08USCJavorius Allen 51 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick)17–6
- Q2 14:56BCTyler Rouse 4 Yd Run (Joey Launceford PAT failed)10–6
- Q1 3:16USCAndre Heidari 52 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 6:05USCGeorge Farmer 8 Yd pass from Cody Kessler (Andre Heidari Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BC Elo 1445, USC Elo 1794 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BC +11.6 (23% to win) — 6.4 points clear of BC's market line of +18. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#38 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #7 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →| USC | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.66 | points / drive | 2.20 |
| 1.74 | allowed / drive | 1.92 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 34% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →