Buffalo vs. Eastern Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BUFTeam statsEMU
- Q4 0:44BUFDevon Hughes 4 Yd pass from Joe Licata (Patrick Clarke Kick)27–37
- Q4 2:25EMUReginald Bell Jr. 72 Yd Run (Dylan Mulder Kick)20–37
- Q4 4:52BUFMatt Weiser 50 Yd pass from Joe Licata (Patrick Clarke Kick)20–30
- Q4 11:16EMUDavid Gibson 23 Yd pass from Reginald Bell Jr. (Dylan Mulder Kick)13–30
- Q4 11:38EMUReginald Bell Jr. 10 Yd Run (Dylan Mulder Kick)13–23
- Q3 3:00EMURyan Brumfield 1 Yd Run (Dylan Mulder Kick)13–16
- Q3 11:22BUFPatrick Clarke 40 Yd Field Goal 13–9
- Q3 14:21EMUReginald Bell Jr. 71 Yd Run (Dylan Mulder PAT blocked)10–9
- Q2 0:56EMUDylan Mulder 21 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 9:24BUFPatrick Clarke 24 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 2:53BUFMarcus McGill 24 Yd pass from Joe Licata (Patrick Clarke Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BUF played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and EMU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.5 vs 3rd & 4.6
- BUF lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 33% success rate
- PassJoe Licata 27/44, 383 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushAnthone Taylor 24 CAR, 128 YDS
- RecRon Willoughby 4 REC, 103 YDS
- PassReginald Bell 8/13, 144 YDS, 1 TD
- RushReginald Bell 17 CAR, 202 YDS, 3 TD
- RecDavid Gibson 2 REC, 47 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsEMU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:38EMU +36%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)
- Q3 3:00EMU +27%
Ryan Brumfield run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)
- Q4 13:12EMU +14%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to Kenny Jones for 29 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST down
- Q4 15:00EMU +12%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass incomplete to Cole Gardner
- Q3 1:06EMU +12%
Reginald Bell Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 10 Reginald Bell Jr. fumbled, recovered by Buff Lee Skinner
- Q4 11:16EMU +12%
Reginald Bell Jr. pass complete to David Gibson for 23 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Buffalo vs. Eastern Michigan?
Buffalo 27, Eastern Michigan 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BUF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BUF | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 537 | Total yards | 484 |
| 383 | Passing yards | 147 |
| 154 | Rushing yards | 337 |
| 22 | First downs | 18 |
| 10-20 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 27/45 | Comp/Att | 10/18 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 8.2 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 6.9 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 7-62 |
| 34:20 | Possession | 25:08 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:49 BUF punt on 4th & 1 at BUF 11. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:44BUFDevon Hughes 4 Yd pass from Joe Licata (Patrick Clarke Kick)27–37
- Q4 2:25EMUReginald Bell Jr. 72 Yd Run (Dylan Mulder Kick)20–37
- Q4 4:52BUFMatt Weiser 50 Yd pass from Joe Licata (Patrick Clarke Kick)20–30
- Q4 11:16EMUDavid Gibson 23 Yd pass from Reginald Bell Jr. (Dylan Mulder Kick)13–30
- Q4 11:38EMUReginald Bell Jr. 10 Yd Run (Dylan Mulder Kick)13–23
- Q3 3:00EMURyan Brumfield 1 Yd Run (Dylan Mulder Kick)13–16
- Q3 11:22BUFPatrick Clarke 40 Yd Field Goal 13–9
- Q3 14:21EMUReginald Bell Jr. 71 Yd Run (Dylan Mulder PAT blocked)10–9
- Q2 0:56EMUDylan Mulder 21 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 9:24BUFPatrick Clarke 24 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 2:53BUFMarcus McGill 24 Yd pass from Joe Licata (Patrick Clarke Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (EMU Elo 837, BUF Elo 1382 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects EMU +19.4 (12% to win) — 4.9 points clear of BUF's market line of +14.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#53 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #22 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Eastern Michigan leads 7–6 · Buffalo has won 2 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| BUF | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.42 | points / drive | 0.94 |
| 2.89 | allowed / drive | 3.11 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 44% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →