Schedule & Results
OREOregonL27-34✓Wk 2vs
MEMMemphisW38-20✓Wk 3vsSODASouth DakotaWk 4@
WMUWestern Michigan-2.657%Wk 5vs
USUUtah State-3.859%Wk 6@
FRESFresno State-3.058%Wk 8@
WSUWashington State-2.657%Wk 9vs
TXSTTexas State-5.764%Wk 10@
CSUColorado State-11.677%Wk 11vs
ORSTOregon State-18.087%Wk 12vs
SDSUSan Diego State+0.648%Team Leaders
Maddux MadsenPassing402 yds · 4 TD · 0 INT
Dylan RileyRushing256 yds · 0 TD · 7.1 avg
Rasean JonesReceiving7 rec · 137 yds · 0 TD
Travis AndersonTackles16 tackles · 0.5 TFL · 0 sacks
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Roster · 113 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Maddux Madsen | QB | SR | 5'10" | 207 | American Fork, UT |
| 10 | Cash Herrera | QB | FR | 6'2" | 202 | La Jolla, CA |
| 14 | Max Cutforth | QB | JR | 6'2" | 208 | Nampa, ID |
| 16 | Jackson Taylor | QB | FR | 6'1" | 196 | Thousand Oaks, CA |
| 0 | Dylan Riley | RB | JR | 5'10" | 192 | Moreno Valley, CA |
| 15 | Zeke Martinez | RB | FR | 6'0" | 215 | Meridian, ID |
| 22 | Juelz Goff | RB | SO | 5'9" | 195 | York, PA |
| 23 | Keilan Chavies | RB | FR | 5'9" | 183 | Hutto, TX |
| 26 | Sire Gaines | RB | SO | 6'0" | 217 | Perris, CA |
| 27 | Harry Stewart III | RB | SO | 5'10" | 220 | Frisco, TX |
| 30 | Mariyon Sloan | RB | FR | 5'10" | 190 | Shafter, CA |
| 3 | Cam Bates | WR | JR | 5'10" | 180 | Mansfield, TX |
| 5 | Akeem Wright | WR | SR | 5'11" | 165 | Baltimore, MD |
| 13 | Darren Morris | WR | SR | 6'1" | 183 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 17 | AJ Jones | WR | FR | 6'1" | 180 | Murrieta, CA |
| 19 | Rasean Jones | WR | FR | 6'2" | 199 | Baker City, OR |
| 24 | AJ Maes | WR | JR | 6'3" | 197 | Rolling Hills Estates, CA |
| 25 | Quinton Brown | WR | SO | 5'8" | 165 | Argyle, TX |
| 29 | Lincoln Dunn | WR | FR | 5'11" | 175 | Melissa, TX |
| 34 | Jeremyah Lane | WR | JR | 5'6" | 140 | Louisville, GA |
| 80 | Romeo Carter | WR | FR | 6'3" | 190 | San Diego, CA |
| 81 | Kamryn Jones | WR | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Temecula, CA |
| 82 | Ben Ford | WR | SR | 5'10" | 187 | Eagle, ID |
| 83 | Qumonte Williams Jr. | WR | SO | 6'5" | 190 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 84 | Gavin Packer | WR | FR | 5'10" | 180 | Vancouver, WA |
| 85 | Terrious Favors | WR | FR | 5'9" | 163 | Atlanta, GA |
| 89 | AJ Logan | WR | FR | 5'9" | 190 | Spring Valley, CA |
| 45 | Troy Grizzle | TE | SO | 6'3" | 246 | Meridian, ID |
| 46 | Carter Kuchenbuch | TE | FR | 6'5" | 238 | Okanogan, WA |
| 47 | Kaden Anderson | TE | SO | 6'3" | 232 | Gilbert, AZ |
| 48 | Ryan Brekke | TE | FR | 6'2" | 216 | Meridian, ID |
| 49 | Beckham Hofland | TE | FR | 6'3" | 230 | Los Alamitos, CA |
| 86 | Austin Terry | TE | SR | 6'3" | 245 | Tumwater, WA |
| 87 | Keawe Browne | TE | FR | 6'5" | 222 | Corona, CA |
| 88 | Matt Wagner | TE | JR | 6'5" | 250 | Prosper, TX |
| 52 | Stewart Taufa | OL | FR | 6'1" | 302 | St. George, UT |
| 55 | Sua Faleagafua | OL | FR | 6'5" | 259 | Spring Valley, CA |
| 59 | Jameson Perry | OL | FR | 6'5" | 290 | Meridian, ID |
| 62 | Roger Carreon | OL | SR | 6'5" | 310 | Jal, NM |
| 63 | Connor Lagrow | OL | FR | 6'6" | 293 | Tualatin, OR |
| 64 | Carson Rasmussen | OL | JR | 6'5" | 300 | Meridian, ID |
| 65 | Hakeim Smalls | OL | FR | 6'3" | 286 | Everett, WA |
| 66 | Jacob Tracy | OL | FR | 6'6" | 300 | Yelm, WA |
| 67 | Jason Steele | OL | JR | 6'4" | 300 | Temecula, CA |
| 69 | Zander Esty | OL | JR | 6'4" | 300 | Auburn, CA |
| 70 | Kyle Cox | OL | JR | 6'6" | 300 | Eatonville, WA |
| 71 | Ashton Kershner | OL | JR | 6'4" | 327 | Martin, TN |
| 72 | Daniil Starykh | OL | FR | 6'3" | 296 | Berlin |
| 73 | Parker Perkins | OL | SO | 6'2" | 300 | Meridian, ID |
| 74 | Alma Taleni | OL | SO | 6'7" | 297 | Gold Coast, QLD |
| 75 | Daylon Metoyer | OL | SR | 6'4" | 321 | Hesperia, CA |
| 76 | Greg Bienvenue | OL | SO | 6'4" | 303 | Mesa, AZ |
| 77 | Kole Cronin | OL | FR | 6'5" | 263 | Reno, NV |
| 78 | Tyler Ethridge | OL | SR | 6'3" | 308 | Midlothian, TX |
| 79 | Connor Warkentin | OL | SO | 6'5" | 293 | Bakersfield, CA |
| 54 | Adonte Medley | DL | SO | 6'1" | 300 | Palmdale, CA |
| 56 | Rowan Rupp | DL | FR | 6'0" | 252 | Meridian, ID |
| 58 | Deuce Alailefaleula | DL | FR | 6'0" | 303 | Anchorage, AK |
| 90 | Andrew Rheubottom Jr. | DL | SR | 6'0" | 277 | Baltimore, MD |
| 92 | David Latu | DL | SR | 6'4" | 325 | Rose Park, UT |
| 93 | Ryder Swanson | DL | FR | 6'3" | 290 | Oregon City, OR |
| 94 | Paz St. John | DL | FR | 6'2" | 268 | Peoria, AZ |
| 96 | Lopez Sanusi | DL | SO | 6'3" | 307 | Dublin |
| 97 | Mikaio Edward | DL | JR | 6'1" | 285 | Kent, WA |
| 98 | Bethel Imasuen | DL | FR | 6'4" | 290 | Reading |
| 99 | Michael Madrie | DL | JR | 6'4" | 290 | Argyle, TX |
| 1 | Boen Phelps | LB | JR | 6'1" | 215 | Rockford, WA |
| 5 | Jayden Virgin-Morgan | LB | SR | 6'3" | 260 | San Diego, CA |
| 13 | Sterling Lane II | LB | SR | 6'3" | 238 | St. Louis, MO |
| 17 | Logan Brantley | LB | JR | 6'0" | 229 | Denver, CO |
| 18 | Sam Brooks | LB | SR | 6'1" | 200 | Doral, FL |
| 30 | Adam Auston | LB | FR | 6'1" | 228 | Lawton, OK |
| 40 | De'Shawn Toilolo | LB | SO | 6'2" | 242 | Lehi, UT |
| 41 | Rocky Dunn | LB | FR | 6'1" | 218 | Melissa, TX |
| 42 | Zyhaire Lewis | LB | JR | 6'0" | 215 | Fontana, CA |
| 43 | Jake Ripp | LB | SR | 6'3" | 240 | Los Gatos, CA |
| 44 | Syncere Brackett-Lambey | LB | SO | 6'2" | 233 | Compton, CA |
| 45 | Markell Bowens | LB | FR | 6'5" | 240 | Pocatello, ID |
| 46 | Corey Webb Jr. | LB | FR | 6'5" | 218 | Tonopah, AZ |
| 50 | Jaden Williams | LB | FR | 6'3" | 245 | Mission Viejo, CA |
| 51 | Roman Caywood | LB | SO | 6'3" | 240 | Holladay, UT |
| 53 | Ty Tanner | LB | SO | 6'1" | 225 | Meridian, ID |
| 55 | Mana Tuioti | LB | SO | 5'10" | 228 | Eugene, OR |
| 57 | Gustaf Henriks Ras | LB | FR | 6'4" | 228 | Stockholm |
| 91 | Bol Bol | LB | SO | 6'4" | 240 | Brooks, AB |
| 95 | Max Stege | LB | SR | 6'4" | 269 | Cologne |
| 4 | Travis Anderson | DB | SO | 5'11" | 190 | Mission Viejo, CA |
| 6 | JeRico Washington Jr. | DB | JR | 5'9" | 176 | Atlanta, GA |
| 7 | Jaden Mickey | DB | SR | 6'0" | 182 | Eastvale, CA |
| 8 | Sherrod Smith | DB | JR | 6'1" | 185 | East Palo Alto, CA |
| 9 | Derek Ganter Jr. | DB | JR | 6'0" | 212 | Pasadena, CA |
| 10 | Madden Soliai | DB | FR | 5'9" | 179 | Laie, HI |
| 14 | Demetrius Freeney Jr. | DB | SR | 6'0" | 187 | San Leandro, CA |
| 16 | Franklyn Johnson Jr. | DB | JR | 5'10" | 172 | Little Elm, TX |
| 20 | Kyle Hall | DB | JR | 6'2" | 205 | Sacramento, CA |
| 22 | Roman Tillmon | DB | JR | 5'11" | 185 | Independence, MO |
| 23 | Davin Hill | DB | FR | 5'10" | 179 | Arlington, TX |
| 24 | Tahj Crutchfield | DB | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Eastvale, CA |
| 28 | Cam Jamerson | DB | FR | 6'0" | 188 | Pearland, TX |
| 29 | Arthur de Boachie | DB | SO | 6'0" | 192 | Amsterdam |
| 31 | Cole Miller | DB | JR | 6'0" | 186 | Boise, ID |
| 32 | Taebron Bennie-Powell | DB | SO | 6'1" | 177 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 33 | Josiah Alanis | DB | FR | 6'1" | 186 | Vancouver, WA |
| 34 | Dom Calhoun | DB | FR | 5'11" | 185 | Pittsburg, CA |
| 35 | Trey Tolmaire | DB | SO | 5'11" | 185 | Mission Viejo, CA |
| 36 | Jacob Arbuckle II | DB | FR | 5'10" | 165 | Hemet, CA |
| 39 | Timothy Mitchell | DB | SO | 5'10" | 182 | Portland, OR |
| 35 | Colton Boomer | PK | SR | 5'10" | 175 | Lake Mary, FL |
| 48 | Canaan Moore | PK | FR | 5'11" | 170 | Vancouver, WA |
| 37 | Oscar Doyle | P | SR | 6'3" | 214 | Brisbane, QLD |
| 38 | Bradan Scott | P | FR | 6'3" | 185 | Solana Beach, CA |
| 60 | Tyler Himebauch | LS | FR | 6'2" | 205 | Monument, CO |
| 61 | Caden Kellow | LS | SR | 5'11" | 223 | Brentwood, TN |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2 games in
Boise State is in year 3 under Spencer Danielson. The strengths are offensive, led by 20th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 138th at keeping everything in front of them.
Boise State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 24% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line11.3%#20 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.29#21 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss11.2%#27 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.77#138 of 138
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 8 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 8 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.54#29
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.02 / 1.51
- Power / stuff (off)
- 87.5% / 11.3%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 19.7%#36
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 12.8% / 6.8%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.20#35 | 0.27#60 | 0.31#106 |
| Defense | 0.25#134 | 0.69#137 | -0.10#7 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.2865th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.1721st
- Offense success rate43%42nd
- Defense success rate allowed39%45th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs49%47th
- Offense success — passing downs30%34th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs43%51st
- Defense success allowed — passing downs31%33rd
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.247th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.91st
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.042nd
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.056th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.580th
- Defense line yards allowed2.564th
- Offense highlight yards1.361st
- Defense highlight yards allowed2.55th
- Offense power success0.9085th
- Defense power success allowed0.3393rd
- Offense stuff rate0.1185th
- Defense stuff rate0.3093rd
Third down
- Third down conversion34%23rd
- Third down distance faced6.082nd
- Third down conversion allowed25%86th
- Third down distance forced8.384th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.0616th
- Net success rate — second half0.1164th
Drives
- Points per drive2.867th
- Points per drive allowed2.154th
- Average starting field position249th
- Opponent starting field position3041st
- Available yards gained55%65th
- Available yards allowed60%27th
- Scoring opportunities per drive86%65th
- Scoring opportunities allowed83%41st
- Points per scoring opportunity3.268th
- Points allowed per opportunity2.950th
- Three-and-out rate24%48th
- Three-and-outs forced8%10th
CORE
- CORE offense6.284th
- CORE defense3.328th
- CORE overall3.067th
Roster
- Returning usage73%87th
- Returning EPA23487th
- Team talent composite64147th
- Recruiting class rank51.064th
- Recruiting class points20664th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Near-equal efficiency edge: 0.020 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 21 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 41.8%
- Expected, given the spots
- 45.7%
- Over expected
- -3.9
- Fourth down vs peers
- +5
- Fourth down vs the model
- -20
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Boise State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Boise State in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 50% | 1.0 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 9-5 | 6-2 | 64% | 8.9 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 12-2 | 8-0 | 86% | 10.8 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 8-6 | 7-2 | 57% | 9.1 | -1.1 |
| 2022 | 10-4 | 8-1 | 71% | 10.5 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 7-5 | 5-3 | 58% | 6.6 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 5-2 | 5-1 | 71% | 4.7 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 12-2 | 9-0 | 86% | 10.1 | +1.9 |
| 2018 | 10-3 | 7-2 | 77% | 8.8 | +1.2 |
| 2017 | 11-3 | 8-1 | 79% | 10.9 | +0.1 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-1 so far, projected to finish 8.8-3.0. Wins the Pac-12 in 53%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.
Win out and it is 80%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
up 11.8 points since preseason — lost 27-34 to Oregon against an expected margin of −27, so +19.5 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 27% where the average Pac-12 team is 25%.
- The Pac-12 takes 0.25 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 20% of seasons, having won their league in 95% of those.
Boise State’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk4at Western Michigan25.5
- wk6at Fresno State22.1
- wk8at Washington State21.7
- wk12vs San Diego State21.2
- wk11vs Oregon State20.9
- wk5vs Utah State20.7
Who to root for
Games Boise State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk3Oklahoma over New Mexico7.4
- wk3San Diego State over James Madison4.3
- wk7Georgia State over James Madison4.1
- wk4Old Dominion over James Madison3.4
- wk10Southern Miss over James Madison3.4
- wk13Coastal Carolina over James Madison3.3
Pac-12
0-0 in league play, projected 5.6-1.41 of 8 by title oddsThe Pac-12 sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 38% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk12San Diego State at Boise State32.9
- wk11Oregon State at Boise State30.5
- wk5Utah State at Boise State30.3
- wk9Texas State at Boise State28.8
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Pac-12 race →
If not the playoff, then
Boise State is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 9 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- Alamo Bowl46%
- Holiday Bowl18%
- Sun Bowl7.6%
- Las Vegas Bowl2.6%
- Independence Bowl0.5%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 15 have sent Boise State a player since 2010 — 34 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Boise State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.