San Diego State vs. Boise State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where San Diego State gets at Boise State: 26th at running it, against a unit 79th at defending the run. Where Boise State gets at San Diego State: 20th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 125th at stuffing runs at the line. San Diego State is also 15th in the push up front, against a unit 52nd.
How
SDSUattacks
BOIS
- 1
Run it
running it · projected · 1 game in
SDSU+0.13#26 of 138BOIS+0.07#79 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected · 1 game in
SDSU3.02#15 of 138BOIS2.48#52 of 138 - 3
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 42% this season, 1 game
SDSU1.19#105 of 138BOIS1.77#138 of 138
HowBOISattacksSDSU
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 24% this season, 2 games
BOIS11.3%#20 of 138SDSU8.3%#125 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · 23% this season, 2 games
BOIS11.2%#27 of 138SDSU10.1%#64 of 138
The two teams
San Diego State
San Diego State runs it: Sean Lewis's offenses have been run-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 14th at defending the pass. The way in is 125th at stuffing runs at the line, and they are 105th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −28.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
San Diego State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 21% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensethrowing it+0.14#14 of 138
- Defensesurviving second and twelve30%#14 of 138
- Offensethe push the line gets3.02#15 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line8.3%#125 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.19#105 of 138
Boise State
Boise State is in year 3 under Spencer Danielson. The strengths are offensive, led by 20th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 138th at keeping everything in front of them.
Boise State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 24% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line11.3%#20 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.29#21 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss11.2%#27 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.77#138 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BOIS Elo 1609, SDSU Elo 1469 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BOIS +0.6 (48% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
SDSU123rd137thBOISBOIS68th65thSDSUThrough the air
SDSU133rd138thBOISBOIS94th84thSDSUOn the ground
SDSU50th80thBOISBOIS28th105thSDSUStaying on the field
SDSU104th22ndBOISBOIS101st75thSDSUTaking care of it
SDSU104th76thBOISBOIS1st22ndSDSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBoise State leads 6–5 · 36% have been one-possession games
| SDSU | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.91 | points / drive | 2.76 |
| 2.80 | allowed / drive | 2.08 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -23 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win San Diego State vs. Boise State?
Gridpex's model favors San Diego State with a 52% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for San Diego State vs. Boise State?
The model projects San Diego State by 0.6.
What time is San Diego State vs. Boise State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 21, 9:30 PM ET, at Albertsons Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →