Oregon State vs. Boise State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Oregon State gets at Boise State: 11th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 138th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Boise State gets at Oregon State: 40th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 122nd at holding teams to field goals. Boise State is also 21st at running it, against a unit 97th.
How
ORSTattacks
BOIS
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 52% this season, 2 games
ORST1.63#11 of 138BOIS1.77#138 of 138
HowBOISattacksORST
- 1
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · 23% this season, 2 games
BOIS4.14#40 of 138ORST4.13#122 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · 23% this season, 2 games
BOIS+0.29#21 of 138ORST+0.14#97 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · 23% this season, 2 games
BOIS+0.27#48 of 138ORST+0.40#118 of 138
The two teams
Oregon State
Oregon State is in year 1 under JaMarcus Shephard. The strengths are offensive, led by 11th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 136th at running it, and they are 126th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Oregon State has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.63#11 of 138
- Offensegetting stopped at the line7.9%#29 of 138
Soft spots
- Offenserunning it-0.08#136 of 138
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points3.45#126 of 138
- Offensethe push the line gets2.86#123 of 138
Boise State
Boise State is in year 3 under Spencer Danielson. The strengths are offensive, led by 20th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 138th at keeping everything in front of them.
Boise State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 24% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line11.3%#20 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.29#21 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss11.2%#27 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.77#138 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BOIS Elo 1609, ORST Elo 1285 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BOIS -18 (87% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ORST70th138thBOISBOIS67th113thORSTThrough the air
ORST3rd138thBOISBOIS94th113thORSTOn the ground
ORST138th79thBOISBOIS29th119thORSTStaying on the field
ORST128th22ndBOISBOIS101st130thORSTTaking care of it
ORST21st76thBOISBOIS1st46thORST
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOregon State leads 6–5 · 27% have been one-possession games
| ORST | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 (#78) | CORE overall | +6.6 (#45) |
| +2 / +3 | offense / defense | +7 / +1 |
| 2.04 | points / drive | 2.76 |
| 2.88 | allowed / drive | 2.08 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +15 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Oregon State vs. Boise State?
Gridpex's model favors Boise State with a 87% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Oregon State vs. Boise State?
The model projects Boise State by 18.0.
What time is Oregon State vs. Boise State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 14, 6:00 PM ET, at Albertsons Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →