Texas State vs. Boise State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Texas State gets at Boise State: 13th at running it, against a unit 79th at defending the run. Where Boise State gets at Texas State: 40th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 110th at holding teams to field goals. Texas State is also 15th at throwing it, against a unit 56th.
How
TXSTattacks
BOIS
- 1
Run it
running it · 20% this season, 2 games
TXST+0.10#13 of 138BOIS+0.07#79 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · 20% this season, 2 games
TXST+0.36#15 of 138BOIS+0.45#56 of 138 - 3
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 48% this season, 2 games
TXST1.07#102 of 138BOIS1.77#138 of 138
HowBOISattacksTXST
- 1
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · 23% this season, 2 games
BOIS4.14#40 of 138TXST5.07#110 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · 23% this season, 2 games
BOIS+0.27#48 of 138TXST+0.55#103 of 138 - 3
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 52% this season, 2 games
BOIS1.27#59 of 138TXST1.32#113 of 138
The two teams
Texas State
Texas State is in year 4 under G.J. Kinne, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 3rd at surviving second and twelve. The way in is 113th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 110th at holding teams to field goals.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −18.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Texas State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensesurviving second and twelve56%#3 of 138
- Defensegetting stopped at the line27.3%#8 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.10#13 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.32#113 of 138
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points5.07#110 of 138
Boise State
Boise State is in year 3 under Spencer Danielson. The strengths are offensive, led by 20th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 138th at keeping everything in front of them.
Boise State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 24% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line11.3%#20 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.29#21 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss11.2%#27 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.77#138 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BOIS Elo 1609, TXST Elo 1438 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BOIS -5.7 (64% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TXST98th137thBOISBOIS68th119thTXSTThrough the air
TXST102nd138thBOISBOIS94th134thTXSTOn the ground
TXST28th80thBOISBOIS28th99thTXSTStaying on the field
TXST18th22ndBOISBOIS101st118thTXSTTaking care of it
TXST133rd76thBOISBOIS1st108thTXST
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TXST | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.0 (#43) | CORE overall | +6.6 (#45) |
| +9 / +2 | offense / defense | +7 / +1 |
| 2.05 | points / drive | 2.76 |
| 4.15 | allowed / drive | 2.08 |
| 10% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Texas State vs. Boise State?
Gridpex's model favors Boise State with a 64% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Texas State vs. Boise State?
The model projects Boise State by 5.7.
What time is Texas State vs. Boise State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 31, 10:00 PM ET, at Albertsons Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →