Gesa FieldUSA NetConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WSU 1549
BOIS 1594
Projected spread
WSU -2
incl. home edge
Model pick
WSU
56% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
56%
WSU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (WSU Elo 1549, BOIS Elo 1594) plus home-field advantage. That projects WSU -2 (56% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelBOIS 44% · WSU 56%
Pick: WSU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
BOIS2025 season · national rank shownWSU
424.324th
Total yards / game
339.8107th5.859th
Yards / play
5.2Key matchups · Pro
- BOIS pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. WSU pass defense (0.11 allowed) — edge BOIS.
- WSU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. BOIS pass defense (0.08 allowed) — edge WSU.
- WSU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. BOIS rush defense (0.20 allowed) — edge BOIS.
FAQ
Who will win Boise State vs. Washington State?
Gridpex's model favors Washington State with a 56% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Boise State vs. Washington State?
The model projects Washington State by 2.0.
What time is Boise State vs. Washington State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 24, 10:00 PM on USA Net, at Gesa Field.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Washington State at 56% to win, projecting Washington State by 2.0.