Skip to content
Baylor

Baylor Bears

Big 12·1-1·
Compare
Elo
1506#67
SP+
4.9#52
FPI
7.1
AP
NR
Nextvs Louisiana Tech · Wk 3Win prob 78%Model -12.1
Talent #43 (723.3)Recruiting class #5760% production returning

Team Leaders

Latest on Baylor

All news →

D.J. Lagway's 333 yards died on third down

Matchup · 6d ago

Baylor rebuilt its tackles; Auburn kept its front

Matchup · Sep 2

Roster · 112 players

FR 15SO 26JR 21SR 50
#PlayerPosClHtWt
2DJ LagwayQBJR6'3"237
12Nate BennettQBJR6'1"192
13Quinn MurphyQBFR6'3"209
14Edward GriffinQBSO6'1"213
17Cade TessierQBSR6'3"219
11Caden KnightenRBSO5'11"211
20Jacorey WatsonRBSO5'10"195
23Michael TurnerRBSO6'0"215
25Ryelan MorrisRBFR5'10"185
33HD DavisRBFR5'10"200
35Dawson PendergrassRBSR6'2"225
1Dre'lon MillerWRJR6'0"207
3Jadon PorterWRJR6'1"192
4Louis Brown IVWRSR6'2"206
6Gavin FreemanWRSR5'9"181
15Jayden McGowanWRSR5'7"187
16London SmithWRFR6'0"211
18Taz Williams Jr.WRSO6'0"192
32Brody DayWRSO5'11"188
34Davion PetersWRFR5'9"172
80Jackson BairdWRJR6'4"198
81Ryne ShackelfordWRSR6'0"186
83DeBraun HamptonWRJR5'10"184
84Chase CollierWRSO6'1"181
87Ashton JonesWRSO6'5"202
89Michael Johnson Jr.WRJR6'3"207
10Tony LivingstonTESR6'6"255
43Brody WilhelmTESO6'5"236
46Parker AlmanzaTEFR6'2"245
85Matthew KlopfensteinTESR6'4"248
86Hawkins PolleyTESR6'4"256
88Kai WesleyTEFR6'7"252
56Harrison CluffOLSO6'4"315
57Journey TalaOLSO6'3"302
58Cooper LovelaceOLSR6'5"313
61Cayden ToneOLSR6'5"295
62Alessandro LorenzettiOLSR6'5"314
63Wyatt SwanerOLJR6'1"287
64Jaydon MendiolaOLSO6'4"308
66Koltin SierackiOLJR6'4"317
67David Roberts Jr.OLSO6'5"341
69Donel Robinson Jr.OLFR6'3"308
70Nate KibbleOLJR6'3"333
71Matthew ParkerOLSO6'7"316
72Asher HaleOLJR6'5"326
73Keystone AllisonOLSR6'3"317
74Kaden SierackiOLSR6'9"310
75Muyont'a MaxwellOLJR6'4"295
76Lawson PettyOLSR6'2"305
77Logan MooreOLSR6'8"296
78Cole RhettOLSR6'6"348
79Connor CameronOLJR6'7"306
9Ryan DavisDESR6'4"251
13Garrick PonderDESR6'2"247
40Kyler JordanDESR6'2"251
53Daemian WimberlyDESR6'4"263
55Jaylin JonesDEJR6'6"230
57Christopher JohnsonDESO6'3"265
92Trent ThomasDESR6'6"259
93Zavion HardyDESR6'5"281
94Tyrone MorganDEFR6'3"218
97Jordan MackDESR6'4"277
0Hosea WheelerDLSR6'3"306
52Aleki ManutaiDLJR6'2"280
54Jae'Lin BattleDLFR6'2"303
59Devonte TezinoDLSR6'5"284
90Braylen JacksonDLSR6'4"289
91Traevon MitchellDLSR6'0"282
96Kamren WashingtonDLSR6'1"281
98Jackson BlackwellDLSO6'3"314
99Jamaal Whyce Jr.DLSR6'4"301
5Travion BarnesLBSR6'0"247
10Kyland ReedLBJR6'1"222
31Anthony Crenshaw Jr.LBSR6'0"218
36Kedrick WalkerLBSR6'3"236
41Kaleb BurnsLBSO6'1"224
42Jamarion PhillipsLBFR6'0"222
44JJ SheltonLBSO6'1"204
46Jahiem PorterLBFR6'1"245
49Trey LaurenceLBSR6'0"220
56Kaleb ArterberryLBSO6'3"246
7Devon JordanCBJR5'11"183
12Kyler BeatyCBJR6'2"202
22Reggie Bush IICBSR6'0"190
23Stilton McKelveyCBSR5'11"178
25LeVar Thornton Jr.CBSR6'3"182
27Jayden RoweCBSR6'2"227
28Calvin Simpson-HuntCBSR6'0"209
33Kalique CheevesCBSO6'1"155
34Daniel EdeniCBJR6'2"203
38Jamarion RichardsonCBFR5'10"162
8Jacob ReddingSSR6'1"198
11Devin TurnerSSR6'2"205
14Daniel CobbsSSR5'11"199
15Colby McCalisterSSR5'10"200
17Tyler TurnerSSR6'0"187
19Leo Almanza Jr.SSO6'2"192
21Bo OnuSSO6'0"210
24Micah GiffordSSR6'3"205
26Colin PeacockSSO6'1"206
29Jordan DavisSFR6'2"204
30Michael AllenSSR5'7"180
32Austin AusberrySSR6'0"193
37Demetrius BrisbonSSO5'11"181
39Cole ReddingSSO5'10"187
48Jad DarkazalliSJR6'0"190
96Riley SullivanPKSR6'3"216
97Bronson MuellerPKFR5'9"204
98Rhett ArmstrongPKSO6'5"209
94Palmer WilliamsPSR6'2"221
60Brady HibbardLSJR6'2"201
93Dylan SchaubLSSR6'5"231

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
30.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
10.0
scoring defense
Differential
+20.0
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
436.0#54
Yards / play
4.4#122
Passing yards / game
333.0#20
Rushing yards / game
103.0#116
First downs / game
27.0#23
3rd down %
31.8%#112
4th down %
66.7%#45
Time of possession
32:32#40
Defense
Yards allowed / game
389.0#100
Yards / play allowed
5.1#75
Pass yards allowed / game
259.0#114
Rush yards allowed / game
130.0#83
3rd down % allowed
55.6%#131
Sacks
5#29
Tackles for loss
11#41
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+1#36
Takeaways
3#30
Giveaways
2#68
Penalties / game
5.0#38
Penalty yards / game
40.0#39

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

balanced

Baylor is in year 7 under Dave Aranda, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 25th at staying on schedule through the air. The way in is 118th at stuffing runs at the line.

On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −1.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.

Baylor has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected strengths

  • Offensestaying on schedule through the air
    #25
    projected
  • Offensefirst and second down
    #25
    projected
  • Offensesurviving second and twelve
    #25
    projected

Projected soft spots

  • Defensegetting stopped at the line
    #118
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
5.7 – 6.3
projected final record (now 1–1)
Exp. wins left
4.7
of 10 games
Bowl odds
55%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
78%
vs Louisiana Tech
Toughest
4%
vs Texas Tech

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

1234567891011
final winstallest bar = 28% chance
Likeliest finish 6-6 (28%)Bowl eligible 55% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
WRGavin Freeman, Louis Brown +3
+19.5 EPA
QBD.J. Lagway
+12.3 EPA
TEHawkins Polley, Matthew Klopfenstein
+0.4 EPA
RBDawson Pendergrass, Caden Knighten +1
-2.7 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBD.J. Lagway
~$642K
EPA +12.30.215/play57 snaps
RBDawson Pendergrass
~$166K
EPA +2.30.081/play28 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.0516th#116
Def0.0364th#51
Explosiveness
Off1.2345th#77
Def1.1666th#47
Field position
Off76.392nd#12
Def69.876th#34
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off2.4313th#120
Def2.4373rd#38
Turnovers
Won 3Lost 2
Margin +1

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.3147th#74
Off · rush
-0.265th#131

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off-0.264th#132
Def-0.0965th#49
Passing
Off0.3145th#77
Def0.1168th#45

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
2.10#125
2nd-level / open-field
0.44 / 0.00
Power / stuff (off)
40.0% / 23.3%
Havoc — total (def)
24.0%#19
Havoc — front 7 / DB
14.7% / 9.3%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off-0.16
Def0.01
Pass downs
Off0.62
Def0.08

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense-0.04#103-0.05#1070.14#120
Defense-0.12#52-0.21#210.72#114

Elo Trajectory

@AuburnFinal
Elo rating 1506 → 1509+3 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.0520th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.0355th
  • Offense success rate39%27th
  • Defense success rate allowed39%47th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs38%16th
  • Offense success — passing downs39%66th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs43%46th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs27%49th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.252nd
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.260th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.8721st
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.266th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards2.110th
  • Defense line yards allowed2.753rd
  • Offense highlight yards0.007th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.9737th
  • Offense power success0.4013th
  • Defense power success allowed1.023rd
  • Offense stuff rate0.2318th
  • Defense stuff rate0.2362nd

Third down

  • Third down conversion33%26th
  • Third down distance faced6.845th
  • Third down conversion allowed53%15th
  • Third down distance forced8.270th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.1251st
  • Net success rate — second half-0.1218th

Drives

  • Points per drive1.435th
  • Points per drive allowed1.470th
  • Average starting field position2426th
  • Opponent starting field position2852nd
  • Available yards gained53%60th
  • Available yards allowed47%53rd
  • Scoring opportunities per drive83%60th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed92%22nd
  • Points per scoring opportunity1.726th
  • Points allowed per opportunity1.576th
  • Three-and-out rate25%49th
  • Three-and-outs forced25%53rd

Roster

  • Returning usage65%76th
  • Returning EPA21380th
  • Team talent composite72369th
  • Recruiting class rank57.059th
  • Recruiting class points20159th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Pass-dominant offense — below average EPA/play nationally
EPA/play
+0.054#116 · bottom 20%
Pass EPA/play
+0.309#77
Rush EPA/play
-0.257#132
Explosiveness
1.232#77
Pts/opportunity
2.43#120
Success rate
38.6%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.566 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

EPA/play allowed
+0.028#51 · average
Havoc rate (total)
24.0%#19
Front-7 havoc
14.7%
DB havoc
9.3%
Big play rate allowed
1.160#47
Success rate allowed
38.7%

Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.

📊

Season Signature

30.0 PPG offense, 10.0 allowed — +20.0 margin/game
Points per game
30.0
Points allowed/game
10.0
Scoring margin/game
+20.0
Turnover margin
+1won 3 · lost 2
Production returning
60%
Talent rank (247)
#43

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE16thEXPLOSIVENESS45thFINISHING13thFIELD POS92thDEFENSE64thHAVOC87th50th100th
Offense
16th
Explosiveness
45th
Finishing
13th
Field Pos
92th
Defense
64th
Havoc
87th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
+12.1
#33
Offense
+6.3
#32
Defense
-5.8
#37
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 12 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive1.421.42
Starting field positionown 24.2own 27.8
Available yards52.5%46.8%
Scoring opportunities83.3%91.7%
Points per opportunity1.701.54
Three-and-out rate25.0%25.0%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
55.6%
Expected, given the spots
52.4%
Over expected
+3.1
Fourth down vs peers
+18
Fourth down vs the model
-13
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Baylor is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Baylor in 2026

by EPA/play distance
Utah StateSP+ -11.5
Off EPA/play +0.052Def EPA/play +0.044Elo 1376
Match
99%
Georgia TechSP+ +1.7
Off EPA/play +0.074Def EPA/play +0.052Elo 1553
Match
98%
AuburnSP+ +7.0
Off EPA/play +0.028Def EPA/play +0.054Elo 1613
Match
98%
Sacramento StateSP+ -19.1
Off EPA/play +0.070Def EPA/play -0.015Elo 1476
Match
98%
WashingtonSP+ +12.0
Off EPA/play +0.064Def EPA/play -0.019Elo 1762
Match
97%
MichiganSP+ +12.2
Off EPA/play +0.125Def EPA/play -0.018Elo 1686
Match
96%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: +22.5, #6 of 1282016: +8.9, #33 of 1282017: -3.9, #75 of 1302018: -1.9, #76 of 1302019: +14.8, #20 of 1302020: -0.9, #67 of 1242021: +12.6, #29 of 1302022: +3.3, #58 of 1312023: -16.8, #115 of 1332024: +10.7, #34 of 1342025: +5.3, #54 of 1362026: +12.1, #33 of 138
20152026
Now +12.1 · #33 of 138Best +22.5 in 2015Worst -16.8 in 2023

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20260-10-0
0%
0.5-0.5
20255-73-6
42%
5.4-0.4
20248-56-3
62%
8.1-0.1
20233-92-7
25%
2.4+0.6
20226-74-5
46%
7.4-1.4
202112-28-2
86%
10.2+1.8
20202-72-7
22%
2.5-0.5
201911-38-2
79%
9.9+1.1
20187-64-5
54%
6.9+0.1
20171-111-8
8%
3.0-2.0

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

2.4%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-1 so far, projected to finish 6.0-6.1. Wins the Big 12 in 2.1%.

If they finish with…

100%
1 loss
68%
2 losses
10%
3 losses
0.6%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.

Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.

down 1.6 points since preseason — lost 16-17 to Auburn against an expected margin of −8, so +6.7 against the number.

  • At 2 losses they are 68% where the average Big 12 team is 46%.
  • The Big 12 takes 1.61 bids in an average season, and four or more in 1.0%.

Baylor’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk12vs Texas Tech8.5
  • wk11at BYU6.9
  • wk13at Houston4.5
  • wk5at Arizona State4.1
  • wk7vs TCU3.9
  • wk8at Kansas3.9

Who to root for

Games Baylor is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk10West Virginia over Texas Tech1.3
  • wk11Oklahoma State over Texas Tech1.3
  • wk2Oregon State over Texas Tech1.1
  • wk7Arizona State over Texas Tech1.0
  • wk5Colorado over Texas Tech1.0
  • wk9Arizona over Texas Tech0.9
The full playoff picture →

Big 12

0-0 in league play, projected 4.1-4.99 of 16 by title odds
2.1%
Wins the Big 12
5.4%
Reaches the title game

The Big 12 sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 45% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk12Texas Tech at Baylor7.1
  • wk11Baylor at BYU5.7
  • wk13Baylor at Houston3.7
  • wk5Baylor at Arizona State3.4

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big 12 race →

If not the playoff, then

58%
Bowl eligible
52%
Placed in a bowl
2.4%
In the playoff
46%
Season over in November

Baylor is 0-1 and needs 6 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 3.5% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.

  • First Responder Bowl7.5%
  • Independence Bowl7.4%
  • Rate Bowl7.1%
  • Liberty Bowl6.9%
  • Pop-Tarts Bowl5.6%
  • Texas Bowl4.4%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 11 have sent Baylor a player since 2010 — 31 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Baylor's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
DeSotoTX40
Fort Bend MarshallTX40
KatyTX40
LancasterTX40
TempleTX31
AllenTX30
Evangel Christian AcademyLA20
Frisco Lone StarTX20
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.