Mountain America StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ASU 1609
BAY 1509
Projected spread
ASU -5.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
ASU
66% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
66%
ASU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ASU Elo 1609, BAY Elo 1509) plus home-field advantage. That projects ASU -5.6 (66% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelBAY 34% · ASU 66%
Pick: ASU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
BAY2025 season · national rank shownASU
451.218th
Total yards / game
416.632nd5.947th
Yards / play
5.9Key matchups · Pro
- BAY rush offense (0.17 PPA) vs. ASU rush defense (0.03 allowed) — edge BAY.
- BAY pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. ASU pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge BAY.
- ASU rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. BAY rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge BAY.
FAQ
Who will win Baylor vs. Arizona State?
Gridpex's model favors Arizona State with a 66% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Baylor vs. Arizona State?
The model projects Arizona State by 5.6.
What time is Baylor vs. Arizona State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Mountain America Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Arizona State at 66% to win, projecting Arizona State by 5.6.