Louisiana Tech vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 5.4 toward 
LT
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread |  BAY −17.5 | BAY −12.1 |
| BAY win | 89% | 78% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Louisiana Tech gets at Baylor: 1st at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 55th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Baylor gets at Louisiana Tech: 81st at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 119th at keeping everything in front of them. Baylor is also 19th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 56th.
HowLTattacksBAY
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 32% this season, 1 game
LT1.96#1 of 138BAY1.30#55 of 138
HowBAYattacksLT
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 52% this season, 2 games
BAY1.23#81 of 138LT1.42#119 of 138 - 2
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · 20% this season, 2 games
BAY45%#19 of 138LT30%#56 of 138
The two teams
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is in year 5 under Sonny Cumbie, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 1st at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 119th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 116th at staying on schedule through the air.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −15.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Louisiana Tech has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 16% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.96#1 of 138
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss27.3%#11 of 138
- Defensegetting stopped at the line28.9%#12 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.42#119 of 138
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air31%#116 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down32%#107 of 138
Baylor
Baylor is in year 7 under Dave Aranda, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 19th at surviving second and twelve.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −1.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Baylor has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensesurviving second and twelve45%#19 of 138
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points1.00#22 of 138
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground50%#26 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 1506, LT Elo 1405 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BAY -12.1 (78% to win) — 5.4 points clear of LT's market line of -17.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
LT79th22ndBAYBAY107th46thLTThrough the air
LT79th43rdBAYBAY20th77thLTOn the ground
LT114th33rdBAYBAY69th72ndLTStaying on the field
LT73rd99thBAYBAY82nd62ndLTTaking care of it
LT75th22ndBAYBAY124th9thLT
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| LT | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.2 (#81) | CORE overall | +17.1 (#20) |
| -14 / -11 | offense / defense | +9 / -8 |
| 0.54 | points / drive | 1.42 |
| 2.47 | allowed / drive | 1.42 |
| 62% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Louisiana Tech vs. Baylor?
Gridpex's model favors Baylor with a 78% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Louisiana Tech vs. Baylor?
The model projects Baylor by 12.1.
What time is Louisiana Tech vs. Baylor and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM ET, at McLane Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →