TCU vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where TCU gets at Baylor: 53rd on first and second down, against a unit 90th on early downs defensively. Where Baylor gets at TCU: 25th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 84th at stuffing runs at the line. TCU is also 40th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 75th.
How
TCUattacks
BAY
- 1
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
TCU#53 of 138BAY#90 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
TCU#40 of 138BAY#75 of 138 - 3
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
TCU#34 of 138BAY#67 of 138
HowBAYattacksTCU
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
BAY#25 of 138TCU#84 of 138 - 2
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
BAY#46 of 138TCU#93 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
BAY#25 of 138TCU#61 of 138
The two teams
TCU
TCU throws it: Sonny Dykes's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 10 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 29th at shutting down the ground game. The way in is 112th at staying out of the backfield.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
TCU has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#29projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#34projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#34projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#112projected
Baylor
Baylor is in year 7 under Dave Aranda, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 25th at staying on schedule through the air. The way in is 118th at stuffing runs at the line.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −1.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Baylor has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#25projected
- Offensefirst and second down#25projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#25projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#118projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 1506, TCU Elo 1595 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BAY -4 (60% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TCU128th75thBAYBAY122nd97thTCUThrough the air
TCU107th114thBAYBAY20th100thTCUOn the ground
TCU112th83rdBAYBAY116th47thTCUStaying on the field
TCU64th131stBAYBAY112th36thTCUTaking care of it
TCU31st30thBAYBAY68th53rdTCU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTCU leads 60–50–5 · 43% have been one-possession games
| TCU | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.1 (#71) | CORE overall | +12.1 (#33) |
| -3 / -3 | offense / defense | +6 / -6 |
| 0.89 | points / drive | 1.42 |
| 1.44 | allowed / drive | 1.42 |
| 0% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win TCU vs. Baylor?
Gridpex's model favors Baylor with a 60% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for TCU vs. Baylor?
The model projects Baylor by 4.0.
What time is TCU vs. Baylor and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at McLane Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →