Baylor vs. Kansas Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Baylor gets at Kansas: 46th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 132nd at keeping everything in front of them. Where Kansas gets at Baylor: 16th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 118th at stuffing runs at the line. Baylor is also 25th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 107th.
How
BAYattacks
KU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
BAY#46 of 138KU#132 of 138 - 2
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
BAY#25 of 138KU#107 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · projected
BAY#30 of 138KU#108 of 138
HowKUattacksBAY
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
KU#16 of 138BAY#118 of 138 - 2
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
KU#25 of 138BAY#86 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
KU#37 of 138BAY#90 of 138
The two teams
Baylor
Baylor is in year 7 under Dave Aranda, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 25th at staying on schedule through the air. The way in is 118th at stuffing runs at the line.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −1.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Baylor has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#25projected
- Offensefirst and second down#25projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#25projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#118projected
Kansas
Kansas runs it: Lance Leipold's offenses have been run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 9th in the push up front. The way in is 132nd at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 128th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −25.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Kansas has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#9projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#25projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#132projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#128projected
- Defensethrowing it#108projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KU Elo 1473, BAY Elo 1506 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KU +1.3 (46% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
BAY122nd69thKUKU67th75thBAYThrough the air
BAY20th69thKUKU57th114thBAYOn the ground
BAY116th63rdKUKU58th83rdBAYStaying on the field
BAY112th53rdKUKU85th131stBAYTaking care of it
BAY68th53rdKUKU118th30thBAY
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBaylor leads 19–4 · Baylor has won 14 straight · 22% have been one-possession games
| BAY | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| +12.1 (#33) | CORE overall | +2.2 (#63) |
| +6 / -6 | offense / defense | +3 / +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Baylor vs. Kansas?
Gridpex's model favors Baylor with a 54% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Baylor vs. Kansas?
The model projects Baylor by 1.3.
What time is Baylor vs. Kansas and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Memorial Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →