vs Miami (OH) · Wk 3Win prob 75%Model -10.6Schedule & Results
BCBoston CollegeW34-15✓Wk 2vsWECAWestern CarolinaW62-10✓Wk 3vsM-OHMiami (OH)-10.675%Wk 4vs
KSUKansas State+5.237%Wk 5@
ARIZArizona+13.620%Wk 7@
WVUWest Virginia-2.958%Wk 8vs
TTUTexas Tech+27.73%Wk 9vs
UTAHUtah+11.124%Wk 10@
HOUHouston+15.616%Wk 11@
ISUIowa State-0.852%Wk 12vs
COLOColorado-3.057%Wk 13@
BYUBYU+21.28%Team Leaders
JC FrenchPassing322 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
Gi'Bran PayneRushing210 yds · 2 TD · 8.1 avg
JaVonnie GibsonReceiving9 rec · 133 yds · 2 TD
Jonathan ThompsonTackles14 tackles · 2 TFL · 1 sacks
Latest on Cincinnati
All news →JC French was responsible for 24 of Cincinnati's 34 points
Our extra 3.6 points on Cincinnati are almost All a disagreement about Boston College's offense
Roster · 110 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | JC French IV | QB | SR | 6'1" | 205 | Roswell, GA |
| 5 | Samaj Jones | QB | JR | 5'11" | 217 | Philadelphia, PA |
| 10 | Liam O'Brien | QB | SR | 6'0" | 210 | Boulder, CO |
| 12 | Brooks Goodman | QB | FR | 6'2" | 212 | Atlanta, GA |
| 15 | Will Kocher | QB | SR | 6'2" | 205 | Kings Mills, OH |
| 22 | JJ Miller | QB | JR | 6'0" | 185 | Amelia, OH |
| 3 | Cole Tabb | RB | JR | 5'8" | 200 | Fort Walton Beach, FL |
| 6 | Gi'Bran Payne | RB | SR | 5'10" | 208 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 7 | Zylan Perry | RB | SR | 5'11" | 210 | Franklin, LA |
| 13 | Zion Johnson | RB | SO | 5'8" | 192 | Covington, GA |
| 25 | James Lewis | RB | JR | 6'0" | 200 | Bloomfield, IN |
| 26 | Jayzon Thompson | RB | FR | 5'11" | 195 | Knoxville, TN |
| 0 | Isaiah Johnson | WR | JR | 5'11" | 184 | Fort Walton Beach, FL |
| 2 | Larenzo Fenner | WR | SR | 6'2" | 183 | Independence, MO |
| 8 | Cade Wolford | WR | JR | 5'10" | 195 | Jackson, OH |
| 9 | Malachi Henry | WR | SR | 6'0" | 205 | Van Buren, AR |
| 11 | JV Gibson | WR | SR | 6'2" | 208 | Opelousas, LA |
| 14 | Elijah Jones | WR | JR | 5'11" | 195 | Norristown, PA |
| 16 | Flynn Schiele | WR | SR | 6'4" | 210 | West Linn, OR |
| 17 | H'eij Jackson | WR | FR | 6'4" | 206 | New Orleans, LA |
| 18 | Giyahni Kontosis | WR | SO | 6'1" | 205 | Beltsville, MD |
| 19 | Dadrien Waller | WR | FR | 6'3" | 205 | Guntersville, AL |
| 20 | Joshua Smith | WR | FR | 6'5" | 205 | Columbus, OH |
| 27 | Taizaun Burns | WR | SO | 5'10" | 175 | Columbus, OH |
| 80 | Jalen Williams | WR | FR | 6'5" | 220 | Bloomington, IN |
| 89 | Pierce Ayers | WR | SO | 5'10" | 185 | Alexandria, KY |
| 82 | Ka'Maurri Smith | TE | SO | 6'5" | 252 | Dayton, OH |
| 83 | Devyn Zahursky | TE | JR | 6'4" | 247 | Berea, OH |
| 84 | Gavin Gregory | TE | FR | 6'7" | 255 | Alliance, OH |
| 85 | Lyviel Waters | TE | JR | 6'2" | 245 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 86 | Kellen Davis | TE | JR | 6'3" | 248 | Middletown, OH |
| 87 | Gavin Grover | TE | JR | 6'6" | 255 | Lewis Center, OH |
| 88 | DaMari Witherspoon | TE | SO | 6'5" | 245 | Dallas, GA |
| 50 | Evan Tengesdahl | OL | SR | 6'3" | 325 | Dayton, OH |
| 52 | Austin Hoane | OL | FR | 6'5" | 295 | Cookeville, TN |
| 55 | Solomon Mathis | OL | FR | 6'5" | 275 | Hephzibah, GA |
| 59 | Jake Wheelock | OL | JR | 6'4" | 312 | Dayton, OH |
| 61 | Nathan Zappitelli | OL | FR | 6'3" | 295 | Mentor, OH |
| 63 | Zac Clarke | OL | JR | 6'6" | 312 | Plainfield, IL |
| 66 | Xavier Lozowicki | OL | SR | 6'5" | 320 | Ridley Park, PA |
| 67 | Luke Grover | OL | FR | 6'5" | 308 | Lewis Center, OH |
| 69 | JP Schrieber | OL | JR | 6'2" | 305 | Berwyn, PA |
| 70 | Cray Paich | OL | SO | 6'5" | 315 | Northbrook, IL |
| 71 | Judea Milon | OL | SR | 6'4" | 300 | Killeen, TX |
| 72 | Nolan Latulippe | OL | SR | 6'8" | 310 | Aylmer, PQ |
| 73 | Aiden Pastoriza | OL | JR | 6'6" | 315 | Jackson, MI |
| 74 | Joe Cotton | OL | SR | 6'6" | 320 | Sioux Falls, SD |
| 75 | Marcus McGregor | OL | SO | 6'3" | 312 | West Des Moines, IA |
| 76 | Zach Taylor | OL | SO | 6'3" | 315 | Kingsland, GA |
| 77 | Taran Tyo | OL | SR | 6'3" | 325 | Greenville, OH |
| 78 | Grant Edgington | OL | SR | 6'4" | 307 | Madeira, OH |
| 79 | Luke Collins | OL | FR | 6'5" | 305 | Gahanna, OH |
| 10 | Patrick Bauer | EDGE | SR | 6'3" | 235 | Mount Prospect, IL |
| 16 | Jaylon White-McClain | EDGE | SR | 6'4" | 265 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 17 | Brian Simms III | EDGE | SR | 6'3" | 240 | Baltimore, MD |
| 24 | Terrell Holcomb | EDGE | SO | 6'1" | 230 | Gahanna, OH |
| 34 | Myles Harrison | EDGE | SO | 6'2" | 235 | Pickerington, OH |
| 54 | Thomas Johnson | EDGE | SR | 6'3" | 255 | Lawndale, CA |
| 60 | Lance Dawson | EDGE | FR | 6'4" | 258 | Avon, OH |
| 82 | James Early | EDGE | SO | 6'3" | 257 | Fort Wayne, IN |
| 91 | Drew Logan | EDGE | SR | 6'4" | 270 | North Canton, OH |
| 93 | Keegan Horn | EDGE | FR | 6'3" | 235 | Hueytown, AL |
| 4 | Marquaze Parker | DL | JR | 6'3" | 270 | West Memphis, AR |
| 11 | Chidera Otutu | DL | JR | 6'1" | 300 | Pflugerville, TX |
| 26 | Cam Roetherford | DL | SR | 6'3" | 280 | Detroit, MI |
| 88 | CD McFee | DL | SO | 6'4" | 312 | Elkhart, IN |
| 90 | Darrius Simmons | DL | FR | 6'3" | 300 | Cairo, GA |
| 92 | Elijah Gunn | DL | SR | 6'0" | 307 | LaGrange, GA |
| 94 | Juan Bates | DL | FR | 6'3" | 290 | Mason, OH |
| 95 | Josh Hough | DL | SR | 6'2" | 335 | Beaver Falls, PA |
| 96 | Nathan Nunn | DL | JR | 6'2" | 282 | Medina, OH |
| 97 | Kamron Neal | DL | SO | 6'2" | 268 | Fort Myers, FL |
| 99 | Jonathan Rulo | DL | FR | 6'1" | 320 | Belleville, IL |
| 3 | Antwan Peek Jr. | LB | SR | 6'1" | 223 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 5 | Marqavious Saboor | LB | JR | 5'11" | 190 | Decatur, GA |
| 9 | Damaine Wilson | LB | JR | 6'3" | 235 | Pompano Beach, FL |
| 12 | Filip Maciorowski | LB | SR | 6'3" | 235 | Carol Stream, IL |
| 15 | Jamari Johnson | LB | SO | 5'10" | 175 | Birmingham, AL |
| 22 | Jonathan Thompson | LB | SR | 6'2" | 228 | Columbus, OH |
| 23 | Jaidon Windom | LB | FR | 6'1" | 200 | Detroit, MI |
| 31 | Simeon Coleman | LB | JR | 5'11" | 225 | Seat Pleasant, MD |
| 33 | George Leibold | LB | JR | 6'1" | 220 | Sarasota, FL |
| 35 | Drew Robinson | LB | JR | 6'2" | 195 | Clarksville, OH |
| 36 | Evan Weinberg | LB | FR | 6'3" | 230 | Springboro, OH |
| 44 | Montay Weedon | LB | JR | 6'0" | 217 | Silver Spring, MD |
| 45 | Jaxon Newton | LB | FR | 6'3" | 210 | Anniston, AL |
| 52 | Ronan Casanova | LB | SR | 5'10" | 225 | Middletown, OH |
| 0 | Jacob Finley | CB | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Birmingham, AL |
| 6 | Zay Johnson | CB | JR | 6'2" | 185 | Clinton, SC |
| 8 | Kenny Worthy | CB | JR | 6'0" | 188 | Buckeye, AZ |
| 13 | Patrick Williams | CB | SO | 5'10" | 175 | Greenville, SC |
| 14 | KK Meier | CB | SR | 6'0" | 205 | Lubbock, TX |
| 21 | Jamarion McKinney | CB | FR | 6'2" | 195 | Greenville, SC |
| 25 | Daniel James | CB | JR | 5'10" | 183 | Powder Springs, GA |
| 29 | Kameron Hurst | CB | FR | 6'0" | 166 | St. Louis, MO |
| 2 | MJ Cannon | S | SR | 6'3" | 213 | Evanston, IL |
| 7 | Ty Goodwill | S | JR | 6'3" | 195 | Prichard, AL |
| 18 | Jasper Beeler | S | SR | 6'1" | 194 | Farmington, MI |
| 19 | CJ Jones | S | SO | 5'9" | 195 | Chicago, IL |
| 20 | CJ Crite | S | SO | 6'1" | 207 | Lincolnton, GA |
| 27 | Markell Taylor | S | FR | 5'11" | 210 | Dallas, GA |
| 30 | D'Angelo Hutchinson | S | SR | 6'3" | 200 | St. Petersburg, FL |
| 32 | Landen Schaefer | S | SO | 6'0" | 185 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 46 | Xavier Starks | S | FR | 5'11" | 205 | Birmingham, AL |
| 93 | Max Lemasters | PK | SR | 5'6" | 175 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 99 | Stephen Rusnak | PK | SR | 6'0" | 185 | Clarkston, MI |
| 31 | Max Fletcher | P | SR | 6'6" | 190 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 35 | Dino Beslagic | P | SR | 6'4" | 203 | Santa Clara, CA |
| 41 | Kenny Baker | LS | FR | 6'0" | 218 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 48 | Eli Stein | LS | SR | 6'3" | 225 | Cambridge, WI |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Cincinnati runs it: Scott Satterfield's offenses have been run-leaning across 9 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 15th in the push up front. The way in is 125th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 116th at shutting down the ground game.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Cincinnati has played 1 game against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#15projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#24projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#125projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#116projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#116projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.56#33
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.25 / 1.48
- Power / stuff (off)
- 100.0% / 9.1%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 23.3%#22
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 15.1% / 8.2%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.12#59 | 0.29#57 | 0.24#112 |
| Defense | -0.21#39 | 0.22#93 | 0.56#97 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.2451st
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.1141st
- Offense success rate39%28th
- Defense success rate allowed40%43rd
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs40%20th
- Offense success — passing downs35%56th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs43%48th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs35%30th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.358th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.331st
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.161st
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.728th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.677th
- Defense line yards allowed3.223rd
- Offense highlight yards1.566th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.7148th
- Offense power success1.099th
- Defense power success allowed1.023rd
- Offense stuff rate0.0984th
- Defense stuff rate0.2050th
Third down
- Third down conversion36%29th
- Third down distance faced6.464th
- Third down conversion allowed31%66th
- Third down distance forced8.880th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.0342nd
- Net success rate — second half-0.1415th
Drives
- Points per drive3.476th
- Points per drive allowed1.374th
- Average starting field position3170th
- Opponent starting field position2573rd
- Available yards gained51%58th
- Available yards allowed47%51st
- Scoring opportunities per drive90%70th
- Scoring opportunities allowed64%87th
- Points per scoring opportunity3.878th
- Points allowed per opportunity2.068th
- Three-and-out rate30%45th
- Three-and-outs forced0%9th
Roster
- Returning usage7%5th
- Returning EPA34.818th
- Team talent composite63445th
- Recruiting class rank58.058th
- Recruiting class points20058th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Rush efficiency edge: 0.079 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 10 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 27.6%
- Expected, given the spots
- 40.0%
- Over expected
- -12.4
- Fourth down vs peers
- +13
- Fourth down vs the model
- -50
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Cincinnati is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Cincinnati in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 7-6 | 5-4 | 54% | 7.1 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 5-7 | 3-6 | 42% | 6.2 | -1.2 |
| 2023 | 3-9 | 1-8 | 25% | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 2022 | 9-4 | 6-2 | 69% | 7.5 | +1.5 |
| 2021 | 13-1 | 9-0 | 93% | 10.9 | +2.1 |
| 2020 | 9-1 | 7-0 | 90% | 9.0 | -0.0 |
| 2019 | 11-3 | 7-2 | 79% | 9.1 | +1.9 |
| 2018 | 11-2 | 6-2 | 85% | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 33% | 4.0 | +0.0 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 6.8-5.2. Top-four bye in 0.6%. Wins the Big 12 in 2.0%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.
Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.
up 0.7 points since preseason — won 34-15 over Boston College against an expected margin of +8, so +11.1 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 39% where the average Big 12 team is 46%.
- The Big 12 takes 1.61 bids in an average season, and four or more in 1.0%.
Cincinnati’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk8vs Texas Tech12.5
- wk13at BYU11.1
- wk5at Arizona8.6
- wk10at Houston7.7
- wk9vs Utah7.2
- wk4vs Kansas State7.0
Who to root for
Games Cincinnati is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk11Oklahoma State over Texas Tech1.2
- wk2Oklahoma State over Oregon1.0
- wk7Arizona State over Texas Tech0.9
- wk10West Virginia over Texas Tech0.9
- wk12Baylor over Texas Tech0.8
- wk4Wisconsin over Penn State0.8
Big 12
0-0 in league play, projected 3.9-5.110 of 16 by title oddsThe Big 12 sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 45% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk8Texas Tech at Cincinnati6.7
- wk13Cincinnati at BYU5.6
- wk5Cincinnati at Arizona4.1
- wk9Utah at Cincinnati3.5
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big 12 race →
If not the playoff, then
Cincinnati is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 4.9% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Independence Bowl8.3%
- First Responder Bowl8.2%
- Rate Bowl8.1%
- Liberty Bowl7.6%
- Pop-Tarts Bowl7.2%
- Texas Bowl6.9%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 15 have sent Cincinnati a player since 2010 — 39 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Cincinnati's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.