Cincinnati vs. BYU Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where BYU gets at Cincinnati: 6th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 116th at generating havoc. Cincinnati projects no clear way in against BYU. BYU is also 12th at moving the ball on the ground, against a unit 116th.
How
BYUattacks
CIN
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
BYU#6 of 138CIN#116 of 138 - 2
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
BYU#12 of 138CIN#116 of 138 - 3
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
BYU#22 of 138CIN#124 of 138
The two teams
Cincinnati
Cincinnati runs it: Scott Satterfield's offenses have been run-leaning across 9 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 15th in the push up front. The way in is 125th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 116th at shutting down the ground game.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Cincinnati has played 1 game against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#15projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#24projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#125projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#116projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#116projected
BYU
BYU is in year 11 under Kalani Sitake, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 6th at keeping a clean pocket. The way in is 125th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
BYU has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#6projected
- Offensefirst and second down#9projected
- Offenserunning it#10projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#125projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BYU Elo 1682, CIN Elo 1516 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BYU -21.2 (92% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
CIN90th45thBYUBYU33rd86thCINThrough the air
CIN131st63rdBYUBYU84th92ndCINOn the ground
CIN21st28thBYUBYU34th108thCINStaying on the field
CIN75th85thBYUBYU5th50thCINTaking care of it
CIN1st6thBYUBYU1st53rdCIN
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CIN | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.8 (#64) | CORE overall | +12.1 (#34) |
| +1 / -0 | offense / defense | +7 / -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win Cincinnati vs. BYU?
Gridpex's model favors BYU with a 92% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Cincinnati vs. BYU?
The model projects BYU by 21.2.
What time is Cincinnati vs. BYU and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →