LaVell Edwards StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BYU 1750
CIN 1471
Projected spread
BYU -13.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
BYU
84% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
84%
BYU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (BYU Elo 1750, CIN Elo 1471) plus home-field advantage. That projects BYU -13.7 (84% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelCIN 16% · BYU 84%
Pick: BYU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
CIN2025 season · national rank shownBYU
407.643rd
Total yards / game
400.355th6.98th
Yards / play
6.0Key matchups · Pro
- CIN pass offense (0.42 PPA) vs. BYU pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge CIN.
- CIN rush offense (0.24 PPA) vs. BYU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge CIN.
- BYU rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. CIN rush defense (0.17 allowed) — edge BYU.
FAQ
Who will win Cincinnati vs. BYU?
Gridpex's model favors BYU with a 84% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Cincinnati vs. BYU?
The model projects BYU by 13.7.
What time is Cincinnati vs. BYU and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this BYU at 84% to win, projecting BYU by 13.7.