Colorado vs. Cincinnati Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Cincinnati gets at Colorado: 15th in the push up front, against a unit 95th at holding the line of scrimmage. Colorado projects no clear way in against Cincinnati. Cincinnati is also 49th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 112th.
How
CINattacks
COLO
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
CIN#15 of 138COLO#95 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
CIN#49 of 138COLO#112 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · projected
CIN#60 of 138COLO#120 of 138
The two teams
Colorado
Colorado throws it: Deion Sanders's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 3rd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 134th on first and second down, and they are 130th at moving the ball on the ground.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Colorado has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#3projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensefirst and second down#134projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#130projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#128projected
Cincinnati
Cincinnati runs it: Scott Satterfield's offenses have been run-leaning across 9 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 15th in the push up front. The way in is 125th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 116th at shutting down the ground game.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Cincinnati has played 1 game against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#15projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#24projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#125projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#116projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#116projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CIN Elo 1516, COLO Elo 1406 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CIN -3 (57% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
COLO70th86thCINCIN90th64thCOLOThrough the air
COLO54th92ndCINCIN131st104thCOLOOn the ground
COLO57th108thCINCIN21st46thCOLOStaying on the field
COLO66th50thCINCIN75th100thCOLOTaking care of it
COLO68th53rdCINCIN1st30thCOLO
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| COLO | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.1 (#86) | CORE overall | +1.8 (#64) |
| -6 / -1 | offense / defense | +1 / -0 |
| 1.56 | points / drive | 3.40 |
| 0.67 | allowed / drive | 1.27 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -13 | pass over expected | -12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Colorado vs. Cincinnati?
Gridpex's model favors Cincinnati with a 57% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Colorado vs. Cincinnati?
The model projects Cincinnati by 3.0.
What time is Colorado vs. Cincinnati and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Nippert Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →