Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (HOU Elo 1512, CIN Elo 1471) plus home-field advantage. That projects HOU -4.7 (64% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Availability-Adjusted Projection
Availability impact
Model estimateNo ruled-out starters
- Out Stacy Sneed (RB)not quantified
Estimates from our player value-over-replacement model (reliable for QBs; softer elsewhere) — a calibrated prior, not a market or backtested figure. Context only, not a betting edge.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: HOU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Offense
Key matchups · Pro
- CIN pass offense (0.42 PPA) vs. HOU pass defense (0.21 allowed) — edge CIN.
- HOU rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. CIN rush defense (0.17 allowed) — edge CIN.
- CIN rush offense (0.24 PPA) vs. HOU rush defense (0.05 allowed) — edge CIN.
FAQ
Who will win Cincinnati vs. Houston?
Gridpex's model favors Houston with a 64% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Cincinnati vs. Houston?
The model projects Houston by 4.7.
What time is Cincinnati vs. Houston and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at TDECU Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Houston at 64% to win, projecting Houston by 4.7.