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Lightning at Canadiens
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Montréal Canadiens

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸3
Montréal Canadiens
2
FinalTV ESPN, The Spot·Centre Bell

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Montréal Canadiens 3-2. The Lightning came back from two goals down. The Canadiens led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brandon Hagel's goal at 15:07 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 48% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.8 to 3.1; shots on goal were TBL 20, MTL 18. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 16 of 18 (.889), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Jakub Dobes stopped 17 of 20 (.850), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Brandon Hagel (2 G), 2. Jake Guentzel (1 G, 1 A), 3. Kaiden Guhle (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    B. Hagel2 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    J. Guentzel1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    MTL
    K. Guhle1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL0611024320
MTLMTL092504218

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. MTL
    Z. Bolduc(1)
    K. Guhle (1), A. Texier (2)
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +18 ptsVideo
    0-1
    10:06
  2. MTL
    C. Caufield(1)PPG
    N. Suzuki (4), L. Hutson (2)
    snapxG 0.28win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-2
    13:29
  3. TBL
    J. Guentzel(1)
    J. Moser (1), D. Raddysh (1)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-2
    19:06

3rd period

  1. TBL
    B. Hagel(5)PPG
    N. Kucherov (4), J. Guentzel (6)
    snapxG 0.25win prob +19 ptsVideo
    2-2
    1:40
  2. TBL
    B. Hagel(6)
    N. Kucherov (5), J. Moser (2)
    deflectedxG 0.15win prob +40 ptsVideo
    3-2
    15:07

Penalties

TBL 16 PIM·MTL 18 PIM

1st

  • 2:04MTLserved by J. Slafkovský · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 7:22TBLMax Crozier · High stickingdrawn by Phillip Danault2 min
  • 9:10TBLYanni Gourde · Cross checkingdrawn by Mike Matheson2 min

2nd

  • 0:41MTLJosh Anderson · Boardingdrawn by Ryan McDonagh2 min
  • 10:24MTLAlex Newhook · Hookingdrawn by Ryan McDonagh2 min
  • 12:24TBLJake Guentzel · Slashingdrawn by Jakub Dobes2 min
  • 13:48TBLZemgus Girgensons · Roughingdrawn by Kirby Dach2 min
  • 13:48TBLNick Paul · Roughingdrawn by Arber Xhekaj2 min
  • 13:48MTLKirby Dach · Roughingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 13:48MTLArber Xhekaj · Roughingdrawn by Nick Paul2 min
  • 13:58TBLDarren Raddysh · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 18:05MTLMike Matheson · Slashingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 18:33TBLBrandon Hagel · Slashingdrawn by Jake Evans2 min

3rd

  • 0:51MTLOliver Kapanen · High stickingdrawn by Dominic James2 min
  • 10:44MTLMike Matheson · High stickingdrawn by Jake Guentzel2 min
  • 11:33MTLJake Evans · Cross checkingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 17:27TBLNikita Kucherov · Slashingdrawn by Mike Matheson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MTL goalTBL goalFinal: MTL 0%

Biggest swing: Brandon Hagel, 3rd 15:07 — TBL 48% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Slafkovský · Missed · xG 0.32J. Slafkovský · On goal · xG 0.29C. Caufield · Goal · xG 0.28N. Suzuki · Missed · xG 0.26N. Suzuki · Missed · xG 0.18C. Caufield · Missed · xG 0.17I. Demidov · On goal · xG 0.13N. Suzuki · On goal · xG 0.12N. Suzuki · Missed · xG 0.12M. Matheson · Missed · xG 0.10K. Dach · On goal · xG 0.10N. Suzuki · On goal · xG 0.09O. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.08C. Caufield · On goal · xG 0.08J. Slafkovský · Missed · xG 0.07N. Suzuki · On goal · xG 0.07J. Slafkovský · On goal · xG 0.07M. Matheson · On goal · xG 0.07N. Suzuki · Missed · xG 0.06Z. Bolduc · Goal · xG 0.06Z. Bolduc · On goal · xG 0.06M. Matheson · On goal · xG 0.04L. Hutson · Missed · xG 0.04L. Hutson · Missed · xG 0.03A. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.03L. Hutson · On goal · xG 0.03J. Slafkovský · Missed · xG 0.02A. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.02K. Guhle · On goal · xG 0.02K. Dach · Missed · xG 0.02P. Danault · On goal · xG 0.02J. Struble · On goal · xG 0.00
MTL2 G · 3.1 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsMTL
3.83 G
All situations
2 G3.1
1.82 G
Even strength
1 G0.7
2.01 G
Power play
1 G2.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL61%39%MTL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.73 – 3.06

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsMTL
20
Shots on goal
18
35%
Faceoffs
65%
1/7
Power play
1/6
16
Penalty minutes
18
28
Hits
50
14
Blocked shots
13
15
Giveaways
4
5
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
38B. HagelL202+130.57212—25:34
43D. RaddyshD011+130.34212—25:18
86N. KucherovR022+130.46002—22:57
59J. GuentzelC112+121.011022022:40
27R. McDonaghD000000.02320—20:22
21B. PointC000+130.790003819:57
81E. CernakD000000.00210—19:37
90J. MoserD022+110.09020—19:33
71A. CirelliC000+100.002304118:58
78E. LillebergD000000.00110—13:43
37Y. GourdeC000010.09212012:46
24M. CrozierD000020.11112—11:54
17D. JamesC000-100.002001711:25
93G. GoncalvesC000-100.00300010:44
10C. PerryR000020.27100—08:50
28Z. GirgensonsC000000.022123308:46
22O. BjorkstrandR000-100.00200—08:18
20N. PaulL000000.012026707:33
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)18162.8893.07+1.0760:00

Series

MTL leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).