North Texas vs. Tulsa Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where North Texas gets at Tulsa: 18th in the push up front, against a unit 83rd at holding the line of scrimmage. Where Tulsa gets at North Texas: 37th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 80th at keeping everything in front of them. North Texas is also 53rd at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 101st.
How
UNTattacks
TLSA
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
UNT#18 of 138TLSA#83 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
UNT#53 of 138TLSA#101 of 138 - 3
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
UNT#33 of 138TLSA#80 of 138
HowTLSAattacksUNT
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
TLSA#37 of 138UNT#80 of 138 - 2
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
TLSA#90 of 138UNT#132 of 138 - 3
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
TLSA#95 of 138UNT#130 of 138
The two teams
North Texas
North Texas is in year 1 under Neal Brown, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 18th in the push up front. The way in is 133rd at defending the run, and they are 133rd at stuffing runs at the line.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
North Texas has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#18projected
- Offenserunning it#22projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#33projected
Projected soft spots
- Defenserunning it#133projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#133projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#131projected
Tulsa
Tulsa is in year 2 under Tre Lamb. The way in is 126th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 106th at throwing it.
Tulsa has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#126projected
- Offensethrowing it#106projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TLSA Elo 1271, UNT Elo 1699 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TLSA +2.3 (44% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UNT72nd57thTLSATLSA93rd100thUNTThrough the air
UNT61st124thTLSATLSA108th85thUNTOn the ground
UNT68th43rdTLSATLSA52nd70thUNTStaying on the field
UNT47th65thTLSATLSA135th116thUNTTaking care of it
UNT21st9thTLSATLSA21st22ndUNT
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTulsa leads 17–9 · North Texas has won 3 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| UNT | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.3 (#50) | CORE overall | -3.8 (#84) |
| +10 / +4 | offense / defense | -6 / -2 |
| 3.00 | points / drive | 2.29 |
| 2.76 | allowed / drive | 1.29 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win North Texas vs. Tulsa?
Gridpex's model favors North Texas with a 56% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for North Texas vs. Tulsa?
The model projects North Texas by 2.3.
What time is North Texas vs. Tulsa and what channel is it on?
Thu, Oct 1, 9:00 PM ET, at Chapman Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →