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Stars at Flames
NHL

Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
2
Calgary Flames
▸3
Final/OTTV ESPN2, BSSW·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Dallas Stars 3-2 in overtime, Johnny Gaudreau scoring at 15:09. The Stars scored first; the Flames answered. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Johnny Gaudreau's goal at 15:09 of overtime, which took the Flames' chances from 52% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 4.9 to 2.7; shots on goal were DAL 28, CGY 67. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 79% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 64 of 67 (.955), 1.9 goals saved above expected; Jacob Markstrom stopped 26 of 28 (.929), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Johnny Gaudreau (1 G, 1 A), 2. Jake Oettinger (64 saves, .955), 3. Jacob Markstrom (26 saves, .929).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    J. Gaudreau1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    DAL
    J. Oettinger64 saves, .955
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    J. Markstrom26 saves, .929

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
DALDAL181401105228
CGYCGY01722609115367

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    J. Benn(1)
    T. Seguin (2), R. Suter (3)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    0:40

2nd period

  1. CGY
    T. Toffoli(1)
    O. Kylington (1), M. Stone (2)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    1:46
  2. DAL
    V. Namestnikov(1)
    J. Pavelski (3), J. Robertson (3)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    2:17
  3. CGY
    M. Tkachuk(1)
    J. Gaudreau (6), J. Markstrom (1)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    8:44

Overtime

  1. CGY
    J. Gaudreau(2)
    E. Lindholm (2), M. Tkachuk (5)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +48 pts
    2-3
    15:09

Penalties

DAL 6 PIM·CGY 2 PIM

1st

  • 9:13DALMiro Heiskanen · High stickingdrawn by Blake Coleman2 min

2nd

  • 5:34CGYTrevor Lewis · Trippingdrawn by Vladislav Namestnikov2 min
  • 6:43DALMichael Raffl · Boardingdrawn by Erik Gudbranson2 min

OT

  • 5:08DALTyler Seguin · Hookingdrawn by Oliver Kylington2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalDAL goalFinal: CGY 100%

Biggest swing: Johnny Gaudreau, OT 15:09 — CGY 52% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.24T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.18A. Mangiapane · Missed · xG 0.16C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.14N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.14J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.13B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.12A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.12J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.12J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.11M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.10E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.10A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.09E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.09T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.09C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.09M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.09N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.09D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.08J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.08J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.08B. Coleman · Missed · xG 0.08T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.08T. Toffoli · Goal · xG 0.08A. Mangiapane · Missed · xG 0.08A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.07D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.07E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.06M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.06B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.06J. Gaudreau · Goal · xG 0.06M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.06B. Coleman · Missed · xG 0.06E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.05T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.05O. Kylington · On goal · xG 0.05D. Dube · Missed · xG 0.05M. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.05E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.05M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.05C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.05N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.05N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.04M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.04T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.04M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.04E. Gudbranson · Missed · xG 0.04M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.04M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.04M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.03N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.03M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.03E. Gudbranson · Missed · xG 0.03J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.03M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03B. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.03T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.03T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.03M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.03M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.03N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.03M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.02B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.02D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.02D. Dube · Missed · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.02M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.02E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.02T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.02M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.02R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.02E. Gudbranson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.02E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.01E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.01C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.01R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.01B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.01C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.01T. Lewis · Missed · xG 0.01E. Gudbranson · Missed · xG 0.01E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.01E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.01B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.01E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Lewis · Missed · xG 0.01R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.01B. Coleman · Missed · xG 0.01N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.00E. Gudbranson · Missed · xG 0.00M. Lucic · Missed · xG 0.00B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.00B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.00E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY3 G · 4.9 xG · 102 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsCGY
2.72 G
All situations
3 G4.9
2.42 G
Even strength
3 G4.2
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 148 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL21%79%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.63 – 4.76

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsCGY
28
Shots on goal
67
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/1
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
22
Hits
35
32
Blocked shots
13
14
Giveaways
15
6
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD000+150.31242—33:07
23E. LindellD000-210.03240—28:59
20R. SuterD011+100.02130—27:53
16J. PavelskiC011+130.570604726:01
2J. HakanpääD000-120.08210—24:06
91T. SeguinC011-120.250023524:02
3J. KlingbergD000-110.22030—23:59
21J. RobertsonL011+120.14120—23:03
92V. NamestnikovC101040.162204321:17
14J. BennL101030.170005021:14
18M. RafflL000-200.01522—21:14
10T. DellandreaC000+110.112005019:15
25J. KivirantaL000000.0012010015:47
43M. StudenicR000-120.27110—13:13
40J. PetersonC000-110.1810010012:28
44J. HanleyD000000.00100—12:24
12R. FaksaC000-100.041204511:51
34D. GurianovR000010.17000—09:52
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(L)67643.9554.93+1.9375:09

Series

CGY leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).