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Flames at Stars
NHL

Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
2
Dallas Stars
▸4
FinalTV TNT, BSSW·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Calgary Flames 4-2. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Miro Heiskanen's goal at 17:32 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 53% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 4.3 to 2.6; shots on goal were CGY 38, DAL 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Jacob Markstrom stopped 36 of 39 (.923); Jake Oettinger stopped 36 of 38 (.947), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Oettinger (36 saves, .947), 2. Jacob Markstrom (36 saves, .923), 3. Miro Heiskanen (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    J. Oettinger36 saves, .947
  2. ★★
    CGY
    J. Markstrom36 saves, .923
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    M. Heiskanen1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY01829011238
DALDAL110217113440

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    R. Hintz(2)
    J. Pavelski (2), J. Robertson (2)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    14:52

2nd period

  1. DAL
    M. Raffl(2)
    J. Kiviranta (1)
    wristxG 0.53win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    6:04
  2. CGY
    M. Stone(1)
    J. Gaudreau (5), M. Tkachuk (4)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    8:09
  3. CGY
    M. Backlund(3)
    M. Stone (1), R. Andersson (1)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    11:59
  4. DAL
    M. Heiskanen(1)
    R. Faksa (1), R. Suter (2)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +22 pts
    2-3
    17:32

3rd period

  1. DAL
    T. Seguin(2)EN
    R. Hintz (2), M. Raffl (1)
    wristxG 0.94win prob +2 pts
    2-4
    19:18

Penalties

CGY 28 PIM·DAL 16 PIM

1st

  • 5:30DALMarián Studenic · Trippingdrawn by Chris Tanev2 min

2nd

  • 0:54CGYChris Tanev · High stickingdrawn by Joe Pavelski2 min
  • 9:58DALRyan Suter · Interferencedrawn by Milan Lucic2 min

3rd

  • 6:10CGYNikita Zadorov · Trippingdrawn by Michael Raffl2 min
  • 19:46CGYNikita Zadorov · Roughingdrawn by Esa Lindell2 min
  • 19:46CGYMilan Lucic · Roughingdrawn by Vladislav Namestnikov2 min
  • 19:46DALVladislav Namestnikov · Roughingdrawn by Nikita Zadorov2 min
  • 19:46CGYNikita Zadorov · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:46CGYMilan Lucic · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:46DALVladislav Namestnikov · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalCGY goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Miro Heiskanen, 2nd 17:32 — DAL 53% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Seguin · Goal · xG 0.94M. Raffl · Goal · xG 0.53M. Raffl · Missed · xG 0.52R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.20J. Kiviranta · On goal · xG 0.17R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.16R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.13J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.09J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.08T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.08J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.08J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.08R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.07J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.07M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.07R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.07M. Raffl · On goal · xG 0.07J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.07J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.07J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.06R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.06R. Hintz · Goal · xG 0.06J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.05T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.05V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.04M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.04J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.04M. Heiskanen · Goal · xG 0.03J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.03J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.02J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.02E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.02V. Namestnikov · Missed · xG 0.02J. Hanley · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.01L. Glendening · Missed · xG 0.01V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.01J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.01J. Hakanpää · On goal · xG 0.01J. Hakanpää · On goal · xG 0.01J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.01J. Peterson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.01V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.01V. Namestnikov · Missed · xG 0.01R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.01J. Hanley · On goal · xG 0.01R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.00T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.00E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL4 G · 4.3 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsDAL
2.62 G
All situations
3 G4.3
2.32 G
Even strength
3 G2.5
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 105 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY46%54%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.55 – 2.77

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsDAL
38
Shots on goal
40
32%
Faceoffs
68%
0/2
Power play
0/3
28
Penalty minutes
16
23
Hits
38
17
Blocked shots
20
15
Giveaways
16
6
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55N. HanifinD000-130.07240—21:35
4R. AnderssonD011010.01120—20:55
28E. LindholmC000-230.091004420:47
11M. BacklundC101+140.151002820:04
13J. GaudreauL011-140.49000—19:15
16N. ZadorovD000-210.024114—18:42
44E. GudbransonD000-220.02110—17:57
88A. MangiapaneL000010.04100—17:51
73T. ToffoliC000-230.27300017:27
19M. TkachukL011-210.31010—17:03
58O. KylingtonD000040.14040—17:02
29D. DubeC000+120.220105015:09
26M. StoneD112+230.28100—14:34
22T. LewisC000-110.204005013:53
20B. ColemanL000050.30210—13:41
91C. JarnkrokC000000.00100013:34
17M. LucicL000-100.031012—09:00
8C. TanevD000-100.00022—07:47
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
25J. Markstrom(L)39363.9232.87-0.1359:30

Series

CGY leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).