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Flames at Stars
NHL

Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
2
Dallas Stars
▸4
FinalTV TNT, BSSW·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Calgary Flames 4-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Joe Pavelski's goal at 10:05 of the third period, which took the Stars' chances from 56% to 83%. Expected goals were close — CGY 3.9, DAL 4.0; shots on goal were CGY 41, DAL 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Jacob Markstrom stopped 28 of 31 (.903); Jake Oettinger stopped 39 of 41 (.951), 1.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Joe Pavelski (2 G), 2. Jake Oettinger (39 saves, .951), 3. Miro Heiskanen (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    J. Pavelski2 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    J. Oettinger39 saves, .951
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    M. Heiskanen2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY113116012241
DALDAL11211228432

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    R. Faksa(1)
    E. Lindell (1), M. Heiskanen (1)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +10 pts
    0-1
    8:21
  2. CGY
    T. Lewis(1)
    M. Lucic (1), N. Zadorov (1)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    13:45

2nd period

  1. CGY
    E. Lindholm(2)
    J. Gaudreau (2), M. Tkachuk (2)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    3:40
  2. DAL
    J. Pavelski(2)
    M. Heiskanen (2), R. Suter (1)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +19 pts
    2-2
    11:41

3rd period

  1. DAL
    J. Pavelski(3)PPG
    V. Namestnikov (1), J. Klingberg (1)
    wristxG 0.34win prob +28 pts
    2-3
    10:05
  2. DAL
    R. Hintz(1)EN
    J. Hakanpää (2)
    wristxG 0.69win prob +2 pts
    2-4
    19:59

Penalties

CGY 19 PIM·DAL 19 PIM

1st

  • 1:22DALJohn Klingberg · Fightingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk5 min
  • 1:22CGYMatthew Tkachuk · Fightingdrawn by John Klingberg5 min
  • 1:28DALLuke Glendening · Cross checkingdrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min
  • 4:40DALJoel Kiviranta · High stickingdrawn by Blake Coleman2 min
  • 4:44CGYElias Lindholm · Interferencedrawn by Radek Faksa2 min
  • 7:27CGYTrevor Lewis · Interferencedrawn by Joe Pavelski2 min
  • 7:27DALJoe Pavelski · Slashingdrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min
  • 13:45DALserved by J. Robertson · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  • 16:04CGYAndrew Mangiapane · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Jake Oettinger2 min

2nd

  • 8:22DALRadek Faksa · Interferencedrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min
  • 12:45DALMichael Raffl · Roughingdrawn by Oliver Kylington2 min
  • 12:45CGYOliver Kylington · Roughingdrawn by Michael Raffl2 min
  • 19:24CGYNikita Zadorov · Trippingdrawn by Roope Hintz2 min

3rd

  • 8:58CGYBlake Coleman · Slashingdrawn by Joe Pavelski2 min
  • 11:34CGYAndrew Mangiapane · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by John Klingberg2 min
  • 11:34DALJohn Klingberg · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Andrew Mangiapane2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalCGY goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Joe Pavelski, 3rd 10:05 — DAL 56% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Hintz · Goal · xG 0.69J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.47J. Pavelski · Goal · xG 0.34J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.26J. Pavelski · Goal · xG 0.19J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.18E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.16L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.13T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.11R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.10M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.10R. Faksa · Goal · xG 0.10J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.10J. Kiviranta · On goal · xG 0.09V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.09R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.09M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.09J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.09J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.08R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.08T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.07M. Raffl · Missed · xG 0.07E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.06L. Glendening · Missed · xG 0.05M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.04J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.03R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.03R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.03R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.02R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.01J. Hakanpää · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.01J. Hanley · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.00J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.00E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.00R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL4 G · 4.0 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsDAL
3.92 G
All situations
3 G4.0
2.42 G
Even strength
2 G2.2
1.50 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY67%33%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.88 – 2.77

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsDAL
41
Shots on goal
32
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/4
Power play
1/4
19
Penalty minutes
19
23
Hits
44
25
Blocked shots
20
11
Giveaways
14
7
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4R. AnderssonD000-210.02120—24:15
55N. HanifinD000-140.11030—24:03
28E. LindholmC101050.682124122:56
8C. TanevD000010.01150—22:04
13J. GaudreauL011-150.50010—21:01
11M. BacklundC000-130.270105317:15
58O. KylingtonD000020.15022—16:17
19M. TkachukL011030.35015—16:16
73T. ToffoliC000-130.33100015:39
44E. GudbransonD000+130.01210—14:26
88A. MangiapaneL000-120.18104—14:05
16N. ZadorovD011+100.00622—13:21
91C. JarnkrokC000-130.410004512:58
20B. ColemanL000-100.24222—12:22
29D. DubeC000-120.21130011:55
22T. LewisC101+130.312126011:17
24B. RitchieR000+110.063005009:23
17M. LucicL011+100.091005009:14
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
25J. Markstrom(L)31283.9032.84-0.1658:06

Series

CGY leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).