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Stars at Flames
NHL

Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
1
Calgary Flames
▸3
FinalTV ESPN, BSSW·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Dallas Stars 3-1. The Stars scored first; the Flames answered. The Stars led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Andrew Mangiapane's goal at 10:38 of the third period, which took the Flames' chances from 52% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 3.2 to 1.7; shots on goal were DAL 21, CGY 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 29 of 31 (.935); Jacob Markstrom stopped 20 of 21 (.952), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mikael Backlund (1 G, 1 A), 2. Andrew Mangiapane (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jacob Markstrom (20 saves, .952).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    M. Backlund1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    CGY
    A. Mangiapane1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    J. Markstrom20 saves, .952

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL071905121
CGYCGY0709316332

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

  1. DAL
    J. Robertson(1)
    J. Benn (1), E. Lindell (2)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +21 pts
    1-0
    13:21

3rd period

  1. CGY
    M. Backlund(2)
    A. Mangiapane (1), B. Coleman (1)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +28 pts
    1-1
    6:49
  2. CGY
    A. Mangiapane(1)
    M. Backlund (1), N. Zadorov (2)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +32 pts
    1-2
    10:38
  3. CGY
    T. Lewis(2)EN
    J. Gaudreau (4), E. Lindholm (1)
    wristxG 0.46win prob +5 pts
    1-3
    19:02

Penalties

DAL 4 PIM·CGY 6 PIM

1st

  • 6:06CGYNikita Zadorov · Trippingdrawn by Luke Glendening2 min
  • 13:51DALMichael Raffl · Cross checkingdrawn by Noah Hanifin2 min

2nd

  • 0:23CGYRasmus Andersson · Hookingdrawn by Michael Raffl2 min
  • 17:55DALMiro Heiskanen · Slashingdrawn by Dillon Dube2 min

3rd

  • 13:20CGYOliver Kylington · Trippingdrawn by Joe Pavelski2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalDAL goalFinal: CGY 100%

Biggest swing: Andrew Mangiapane, 3rd 10:38 — CGY 52% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.50T. Lewis · Goal · xG 0.46D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.17M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.15M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.12M. Backlund · Goal · xG 0.11M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.11T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.09M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.08B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.07D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.07B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.07E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.07B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.06M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.06T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.06N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.06C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.05A. Mangiapane · Goal · xG 0.05E. Gudbranson · Missed · xG 0.05A. Mangiapane · Missed · xG 0.04C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.04M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.04T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.04C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.04M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.04A. Mangiapane · Missed · xG 0.04R. Andersson · Missed · xG 0.03O. Kylington · On goal · xG 0.03M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.03R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.03N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.02C. Tanev · Missed · xG 0.02C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.02M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.02M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.02E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.02E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.01O. Kylington · Missed · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.01R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Tanev · Missed · xG 0.01N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.01C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.00D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.00T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.00E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.00R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.00T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY3 G · 3.2 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsCGY
1.71 G
All situations
2 G3.2
1.51 G
Even strength
2 G1.8
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL41%59%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.72 – 2.19

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsCGY
21
Shots on goal
32
57%
Faceoffs
43%
0/3
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
27
Hits
20
14
Blocked shots
4
7
Giveaways
15
6
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
23E. LindellD011+110.02040—22:10
20R. SuterD000-200.00010—21:42
4M. HeiskanenD000-320.03002—20:43
21J. RobertsonL101010.32010—20:08
16J. PavelskiC000-140.421102920:06
91T. SeguinC000020.340007319:51
3J. KlingbergD000-100.07100—19:46
2J. HakanpääD000+120.08520—19:18
24R. HintzC000-110.141004318:30
92V. NamestnikovC000-200.001008017:20
18M. RafflL000020.07402—16:54
14J. BennL011+100.052105516:20
44J. HanleyD000010.02320—13:50
12R. FaksaC000-110.051106713:30
40J. PetersonC000-100.00300010:33
11L. GlendeningC000-220.020105010:24
43M. StudenicR000010.08200—08:26
25J. KivirantaL000010.01300—07:30
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(L)31292.9352.20+0.2058:59

Series

CGY leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).