Lightning at Maple Leafs 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Tampa Bay Lightning

▸2

Toronto Maple Leafs

FinalTV TNT, BSSUN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 2-1. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nick Paul's goal at 16:32 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 47% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.3 to 2.5; shots on goal were TBL 25, TOR 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 30 of 31 (.968), 2.3 goals saved above expected; Jack Campbell stopped 23 of 25 (.920), 0.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Nick Paul (2 G), 2. Morgan Rielly (1 G), 3. Andrei Vasilevskiy (30 saves, .968).

Three stars

★
N. Paul2 G
★★
M. Rielly1 G
★★★
A. Vasilevskiy30 saves, .968

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	18	111	06	225
TOR	06	18	017	131

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

N. Paul(1)
R. Colton (2), C. Foote (2)
backhandxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
1-0
18:24

2nd period

M. Rielly(3)
A. Matthews (5), M. Marner (6)
wristxG 0.06win prob +20 pts
1-1
13:25
N. Paul(2)
Unassisted
wristxG 0.17win prob +22 pts
2-1
16:32

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

7:55Brandon Hagel · Trippingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min
10:06Mark Giordano · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
18:35Steven Stamkos · Holdingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

2nd

8:32Justin Holl · Interferencedrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min

3rd

6:19Ondrej Palat · Hookingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: TOR

Biggest swing: Nick Paul, 2nd 16:32 — TBL 47% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 3.3 xG · 48 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.5 xG · 32 att TOR

1 G · 3.3 xG · 48 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.52 G
All situations: 1 G3.3; 1.42 G
Even strength: 1 G1.8; 1.10 G
Power play: 0 G1.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

37%63%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.49 – 3.28

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

25
Shots on goal: 31; 39%
Faceoffs: 61%; 0/2
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 37
Hits: 39; 26
Blocked shots: 13; 9
Giveaways: 10; 9
Takeaways: 10

Box score

every player line

Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
81E. CernakD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	5	0	0	—	26:24
77V. HedmanD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.06	2	6	0	—	25:29
27R. McDonaghD	0	0	0	+2	2	0.10	2	4	0	—	22:04
20N. PaulL	2	0	2	+1	4	0.51	2	1	0	33	22:03
17A. KillornL	0	0	0	+1	3	0.37	2	0	0	100	22:00
98M. SergachevD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	3	0	—	20:51
71A. CirelliC	0	0	0	0	1	0.17	3	4	0	33	20:41
86N. KucherovR	0	0	0	0	2	0.15	0	0	0	—	18:43
91S. StamkosC	0	0	0	0	3	0.46	2	0	2	40	16:59
18O. PalatL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	3	2	—	16:21
38B. HagelL	0	0	0	+1	1	0.04	1	0	2	—	14:22
79R. ColtonC	0	1	1	0	1	0.02	5	1	0	0	14:14
41P. BellemareL	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	0	0	63	13:48
24Z. BogosianD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	3	0	0	—	11:01
52C. FooteD	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	4	2	0	—	10:50
10C. PerryR	0	0	0	0	3	0.47	0	2	0	—	07:35
21B. PointC	0	0	0	0	2	0.14	3	0	0	33	05:51
14P. MaroonL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	04:44

Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)	31	30	1	.968	3.30	+2.30	60:00

Series

TBL leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs

1st period

2nd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score