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Maple Leafs at Lightning
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸7
FinalTV TBS, BSSUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 7-3. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 5-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Pierre-Edouard Bellemare's goal at 5:20 of the first period, which took the Lightning's chances from 66% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 5.0 to 2.2; shots on goal were TOR 25, TBL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. Erik Kallgren stopped 10 of 10 (1.000), 1.5 goals saved above expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Victor Hedman (2 A), 2. Brandon Hagel (2 A), 3. Patrick Maroon (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    V. Hedman2 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    B. Hagel2 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    P. Maroon1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR01004311325
TBLTBL3102929728

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    S. Stamkos(1)
    N. Kucherov (3), V. Hedman (4)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    1:00
  2. TBL
    P. Bellemare(1)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.15win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    5:20
  3. TBL
    P. Maroon(1)
    M. Sergachev (2), V. Hedman (5)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +10 pts
    0-3
    7:58

2nd period

  1. TBL
    R. Colton(2)
    B. Hagel (1), C. Foote (1)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +4 pts
    0-4
    3:17
  2. TBL
    C. Perry(2)PPG
    N. Kucherov (4), B. Point (1)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +1 pts
    0-5
    5:25

3rd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(1)PPG
    A. Matthews (4), M. Rielly (3)
    tip-inxG 0.12
    1-5
    2:27
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(2)
    J. Tavares (2)
    slapxG 0.04
    2-5
    12:01
  3. TBL
    O. Palat(2)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.58
    2-6
    14:40
  4. TOR
    J. Muzzin(2)
    T. Brodie (2), C. Blackwell (1)
    slapxG 0.02
    3-6
    15:41
  5. TBL
    R. Colton(3)EN
    B. Hagel (2), R. McDonagh (2)
    backhandxG 0.79
    3-7
    17:44

Penalties

TOR 30 PIM·TBL 22 PIM

1st

  • 8:04TORJason Spezza · Cross checkingdrawn by Patrick Maroon2 min
  • 17:15TBLErik Cernak · Trippingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min
  • 19:33TBLNick Paul · Trippingdrawn by Ondrej Kase2 min
  • 19:33TOROndrej Kase · Slashingdrawn by Nick Paul2 min

2nd

  • 3:57TORJohn Tavares · Hookingdrawn by Corey Perry2 min
  • 4:06TORDavid Kampf · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 5:52TOROndrej Kase · High sticking double minordrawn by Nick Paul4 min
  • 6:31TBLVictor Hedman · Trippingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min
  • 14:14TORPierre Engvall · Slashingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min
  • 14:52TBLNikita Kucherov · Trippingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min
  • 16:52TORTJ Brodie · Slashingdrawn by Nick Paul2 min

3rd

  • 2:21TBLMikhail Sergachev · Roughingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 8:03TORMichael Bunting · High stickingdrawn by Mikhail Sergachev2 min
  • 10:43TBLRyan McDonagh · Slashingdrawn by Ilya Mikheyev2 min
  • 10:43TORIlya Mikheyev · Roughingdrawn by Ryan McDonagh2 min
  • 19:29TBLBrandon Hagel · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:29TORPierre Engvall · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalTOR goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, 1st 5:20 — TBL 66% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Colton · Goal · xG 0.79O. Palat · Goal · xG 0.58C. Perry · Missed · xG 0.31B. Point · Missed · xG 0.22P. Maroon · Goal · xG 0.22B. Point · On goal · xG 0.20N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.18N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.17P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.16P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.16S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.15P. Bellemare · Goal · xG 0.15B. Point · On goal · xG 0.14V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.13S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.13C. Perry · Goal · xG 0.12B. Point · On goal · xG 0.12B. Point · On goal · xG 0.12O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.12S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.11B. Point · Missed · xG 0.09N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.09R. Colton · Goal · xG 0.08R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.07V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.06O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.05S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.04V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.04V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.04S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.03R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.03C. Foote · On goal · xG 0.02E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.02R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.01P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.01C. Foote · Missed · xG 0.00
TBL7 G · 5.0 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsTBL
2.23 G
All situations
5 G5.0
1.82 G
Even strength
4 G2.0
0.31 G
Power play
1 G1.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR26%74%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.12 – 3.60

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsTBL
25
Shots on goal
28
59%
Faceoffs
41%
1/3
Power play
1/8
30
Penalty minutes
22
40
Hits
32
21
Blocked shots
8
0
Giveaways
5
3
Takeaways
12

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8J. MuzzinD101+110.03210—21:39
78T. BrodieD011+100.00252—21:21
44M. RiellyD011-420.17110—20:36
55M. GiordanoD000-130.14030—19:56
34A. MatthewsC011-310.052105419:03
16M. MarnerR000-310.19020—18:48
3J. HollD000-110.00530—17:25
88W. NylanderR202-130.24100—16:38
64D. KampfC000+140.181025816:10
65I. MikheyevR000-220.11402—15:41
46I. LyubushkinD000-200.00810—14:52
91J. TavaresC011-210.644129213:50
47P. EngvallL000-110.05301210013:21
25O. KaseR000030.09026—12:02
15A. KerfootC000-120.2821010011:36
19J. SpezzaC000-200.00002011:33
58M. BuntingL000-100.00102—10:11
11C. BlackwellC011-200.004002908:15
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
50E. Kallgren101001.0001.46+1.4630:46
36J. Campbell(L)16115.6882.17-2.8326:49

Series

TBL leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).