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Maple Leafs at Lightning
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
Final/OTTV TBS, BSSUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3 in overtime, Brayden Point scoring at 18:04. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Maple Leafs led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brayden Point's goal at 18:04 of overtime, which took the Lightning's chances from 52% to 100%. Expected goals were close — TOR 3.6, TBL 3.4; shots on goal were TOR 33, TBL 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Jack Campbell stopped 31 of 35 (.886), 0.6 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 30 of 33 (.909), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Brayden Point (1 G, 1 A), 2. John Tavares (2 G), 3. Anthony Cirelli (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    B. Point1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares2 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    A. Cirelli1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR063140409333
TBLTBL112191915435

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    O. Palat(3)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.11win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    17:38

2nd period

  1. TBL
    A. Cirelli(1)SHG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.23win prob +18 pts
    0-2
    10:46
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(4)
    M. Giordano (2), W. Nylander (3)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    11:40
  3. TOR
    J. Tavares(2)
    J. Spezza (1), O. Kase (3)
    tip-inxG 0.04win prob +23 pts
    2-2
    19:26
  4. TOR
    J. Tavares(3)
    W. Nylander (4), A. Kerfoot (1)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +24 pts
    3-2
    19:52

3rd period

  1. TBL
    N. Kucherov(2)PPG
    B. Point (2), S. Stamkos (2)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +30 pts
    3-3
    9:20

Overtime

  1. TBL
    B. Point(2)
    A. Killorn (4), B. Hagel (3)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +48 pts
    3-4
    18:04

Penalties

TOR 8 PIM·TBL 4 PIM

1st

  • 16:07TORJustin Holl · Interferencedrawn by Nick Paul2 min
  • 16:07TBLNick Paul · Embellishment2 min
  • 19:32TORMorgan Rielly · Trippingdrawn by Ondrej Palat2 min

2nd

  • 9:02TBLCal Foote · Hookingdrawn by Ilya Mikheyev2 min

3rd

  • 8:02TORDavid Kampf · High stickingdrawn by Cal Foote2 min
  • 8:18TORAlexander Kerfoot · High stickingdrawn by Victor Hedman2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalTOR goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Brayden Point, OT 18:04 — TBL 52% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.27B. Point · Goal · xG 0.25O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.25A. Cirelli · Goal · xG 0.23A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.15O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.15O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.14S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.13S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.13N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.13N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.13N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.12O. Palat · Goal · xG 0.11M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.10B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.10N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.10R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.10N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.09S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.07N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.07O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.04A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.03N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.03R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.03P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.03A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.03A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.02C. Foote · On goal · xG 0.02S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.02E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Bogosian · Missed · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02C. Foote · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Bogosian · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Bogosian · Missed · xG 0.01N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.01C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.01P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.01M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.01M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.00V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL4 G · 3.4 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsTBL
3.63 G
All situations
4 G3.4
3.33 G
Even strength
2 G2.4
0.20 G
Power play
1 G0.7
0.10 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR54%46%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.61 – 3.32

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsTBL
33
Shots on goal
35
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/1
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
4
48
Hits
60
21
Blocked shots
21
4
Giveaways
8
7
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8J. MuzzinD000-100.00530—30:15
78T. BrodieD000-100.03130—28:51
34A. MatthewsC101060.879106628:19
44M. RiellyD000+220.04522—28:14
16M. MarnerR000030.30000—28:04
55M. GiordanoD011-120.04010—25:09
91J. TavaresC202+230.214203523:05
58M. BuntingL000-210.23400—22:21
3J. HollD000000.01322—21:57
88W. NylanderR022+220.2901010021:46
15A. KerfootC011030.4411210021:39
65I. MikheyevR000-230.54100—20:38
64D. KampfC000040.414025020:26
46I. LyubushkinD000+210.03450—20:19
47P. EngvallL000020.1130010019:03
11C. BlackwellC000000.00100008:31
25O. KaseR011010.07100—08:06
19J. SpezzaC011000.002005006:19
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
36J. Campbell(L)35314.8863.39-0.6178:04

Series

TBL leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).