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Lightning at Maple Leafs
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
0
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
FinalTV ESPN2, BSSUN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-0. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 4-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jake Muzzin's goal at 18:19 of the first period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 54% to 68%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.9 to 2.3; shots on goal were TBL 24, TOR 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 75% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 27 of 32 (.844), 1.1 goals below expected; Jack Campbell stopped 24 of 24 (1.000), 2.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jack Campbell (24 saves, 1.000), 2. Auston Matthews (2 G, 1 A), 3. Mitch Marner (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Campbell24 saves, 1.000
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL0501108024
TORTOR18311113532

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    J. Muzzin(1)
    O. Kase (1), I. Mikheyev (1)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    18:19

2nd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(1)PPG
    M. Marner (1), J. Tavares (1)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    6:18
  2. TOR
    D. Kampf(1)SHG
    M. Marner (2)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +10 pts
    0-3
    9:27
  3. TOR
    M. Marner(1)
    M. Rielly (1), A. Matthews (1)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +3 pts
    0-4
    16:39

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(2)
    O. Kase (2), M. Rielly (2)
    wristxG 0.10
    0-5
    8:16

Penalties

TBL 51 PIM·TOR 62 PIM

1st

  • 2:13TORTJ Brodie · Hookingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 6:59TORKyle Clifford · Boardingdrawn by Ross Colton5 min
  • 6:59TORKyle Clifford · Game misconduct10 min
  • 11:59TBLNikita Kucherov · Cross checkingdrawn by TJ Brodie2 min
  • 16:03TBLMikhail Sergachev · Holdingdrawn by William Nylander2 min

2nd

  • 3:20TORIlya Mikheyev · Trippingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min
  • 5:11TBLMikhail Sergachev · Cross checkingdrawn by David Kampf2 min
  • 6:07TBLJan Rutta · Cross checkingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min
  • 8:16TORIlya Mikheyev · Holdingdrawn by Jan Rutta2 min
  • 10:46TORIlya Lyubushkin · Interferencedrawn by Nick Paul2 min
  • 19:33TORPierre Engvall · Roughingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 19:33TBLBrandon Hagel · Roughingdrawn by Pierre Engvall2 min

3rd

  • 10:09TBLCorey Perry · Roughingdrawn by Ilya Lyubushkin2 min
  • 10:09TORIlya Lyubushkin · Roughingdrawn by Corey Perry2 min
  • 10:09TBLCorey Perry · Roughingdrawn by Ilya Lyubushkin2 min
  • 10:09TBLCorey Perry · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Wayne Simmonds2 min
  • 10:09TORMorgan Rielly · Fightingdrawn by Jan Rutta5 min
  • 10:09TBLJan Rutta · Fightingdrawn by Morgan Rielly5 min
  • 10:09TBLPatrick Maroon · Misconduct10 min
  • 10:09TORWayne Simmonds · Misconduct10 min
  • 10:09TBLJan Rutta · Misconduct10 min
  • 10:09TORMorgan Rielly · Misconduct10 min
  • 10:09TBLCorey Perry · Misconduct10 min
  • 10:09TORIlya Lyubushkin · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalTBL goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Jake Muzzin, 1st 18:19 — TOR 54% → 68%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.35W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.25M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.18W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.17D. Kampf · Goal · xG 0.16M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.15A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.14I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.14A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.13M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.13J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.13M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.12P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.12O. Kase · Missed · xG 0.11A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.10W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.10W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.09W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.09P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.08A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.08J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.08C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.08M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.07O. Kase · Missed · xG 0.07O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.07M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.05P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.05T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.05M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.05J. Muzzin · Missed · xG 0.03P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.03M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.03J. Muzzin · Goal · xG 0.02P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.02I. Lyubushkin · Missed · xG 0.02M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.01J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.01C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.01O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.00I. Mikheyev · Missed · xG 0.00M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR5 G · 3.9 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsTOR
2.30 G
All situations
5 G3.9
1.30 G
Even strength
3 G2.2
1.00 G
Power play
1 G1.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL25%75%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.30 – 3.92

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsTOR
24
Shots on goal
32
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/5
Power play
1/6
51
Penalty minutes
62
56
Hits
36
10
Blocked shots
26
10
Giveaways
14
3
Takeaways
14

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
98M. SergachevD000020.06424—23:30
77V. HedmanD000-350.14100—22:41
27R. McDonaghD000-100.00550—20:16
17A. KillornL000-220.04200—20:12
21B. PointC000-220.333006019:28
86N. KucherovR000-220.31302—19:27
81E. CernakD000-200.00100—18:28
91S. StamkosC000-120.534003317:41
79R. ColtonC000-120.04300014:34
52C. FooteD000010.15720—14:24
71A. CirelliC000-100.106004314:18
20N. PaulL000010.264004414:04
18O. PalatL000000.00310—13:47
38B. HagelL000-120.1030210013:32
41P. BellemareL000-100.003005012:25
10C. PerryR000-120.141016—10:08
14P. MaroonL000-110.103010—10:08
44J. RuttaD000-100.000017—08:21
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(L)32275.8443.94-1.0659:29

Series

TBL leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).