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Lightning at Maple Leafs
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
3
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
FinalTV ESPN2, BSSUN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3. The Maple Leafs came back from two goals down. The Lightning led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Auston Matthews's goal at 13:54 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 52% to 88%. Expected goals were close — TBL 2.9, TOR 2.8; shots on goal were TBL 35, TOR 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 21 of 25 (.840), 1.2 goals below expected; Jack Campbell stopped 32 of 35 (.914). Three stars: 1. William Nylander (1 G, 2 A), 2. John Tavares (1 G, 1 A), 3. Auston Matthews (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    W. Nylander1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL21409112335
TORTOR0411437425

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    S. Stamkos(2)
    O. Palat (2), N. Kucherov (5)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    5:19
  2. TBL
    V. Hedman(2)PPG
    N. Kucherov (6), A. Killorn (3)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
    2-0
    6:11

2nd period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(1)PPG
    W. Nylander (1), M. Giordano (1)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    3:35

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Rielly(2)
    J. Tavares (3), W. Nylander (2)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +22 pts
    2-2
    3:01
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(3)
    I. Mikheyev (2), J. Holl (1)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +27 pts
    2-3
    4:14
  3. TBL
    R. McDonagh(1)
    R. Colton (1), N. Paul (2)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +29 pts
    3-3
    8:17
  4. TOR
    A. Matthews(3)
    M. Marner (5), M. Bunting (2)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +36 pts
    3-4
    13:54

Penalties

TBL 12 PIM·TOR 10 PIM

1st

  • 2:51TBLserved by C. Perry · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 5:50TORTJ Brodie · Hookingdrawn by Nick Paul2 min
  • 9:47TORWilliam Nylander · Holdingdrawn by Cal Foote2 min
  • 11:17TORMark Giordano · Cross checkingdrawn by Corey Perry2 min
  • 15:21TBLBrayden Point · Interferencedrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 18:37TBLZach Bogosian · Interferencedrawn by Colin Blackwell2 min
  • 18:43TORMitch Marner · Hookingdrawn by Ryan McDonagh2 min

2nd

  • 2:33TBLserved by C. Perry · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 8:59TBLSteven Stamkos · Trippingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min

3rd

  • 2:15TORDavid Kampf · Hookingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 2:25TBLSteven Stamkos · High stickingdrawn by TJ Brodie2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalTBL goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Auston Matthews, 3rd 13:54 — TOR 52% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.22W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.19J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.17W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.15M. Rielly · Goal · xG 0.15M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.14M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.13A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.13J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.10M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.10A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.09M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.08M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.08M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.07M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.06M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.06M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.05A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.05J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.04O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.04J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.04J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.03M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.03M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.03M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.02P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.02C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.02M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.02D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.02I. Lyubushkin · On goal · xG 0.02D. Kampf · Missed · xG 0.01M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.01I. Lyubushkin · On goal · xG 0.01A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.01D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.00J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.00D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR4 G · 2.8 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsTOR
2.93 G
All situations
4 G2.8
1.52 G
Even strength
3 G2.2
1.11 G
Power play
1 G0.4
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL52%48%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.83 – 2.74

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsTOR
35
Shots on goal
25
38%
Faceoffs
62%
1/5
Power play
1/6
12
Penalty minutes
10
41
Hits
31
16
Blocked shots
7
6
Giveaways
6
6
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD101-280.16430—26:22
27R. McDonaghD101+130.12030—22:26
98M. SergachevD000+100.06210—21:42
81E. CernakD000-200.00420—21:25
21B. PointC000-220.442022721:13
86N. KucherovR022060.68000—20:13
71A. CirelliC000010.074103320:01
20N. PaulL011040.625103617:15
91S. StamkosC101+150.335346016:57
17A. KillornL011-120.08010—16:37
18O. PalatL011+110.1150010014:41
52C. FooteD000000.00110—13:04
38B. HagelL000000.00100—12:38
79R. ColtonC011000.00100011:25
10C. PerryR000020.14200—10:01
41P. BellemareL000000.00200—10:00
24Z. BogosianD000010.07202—09:03
14P. MaroonL000000.00100—05:08
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(L)25214.8402.76-1.2458:47

Series

TBL leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).