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Maple Leafs at Lightning
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
Tampa Bay Lightning
2
FinalTV TBS, BSSUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-2. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Colin Blackwell's goal at 9:44 of the first period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 58% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 5.4 to 3.0; shots on goal were TOR 36, TBL 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Jack Campbell stopped 32 of 34 (.941), 1.0 goals saved above expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 31 of 34 (.912), 0.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jack Campbell (32 saves, .941), 2. Ondrej Palat (1 G, 1 A), 3. Mitch Marner (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Campbell32 saves, .941
  2. ★★
    TBL
    O. Palat1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR21511427536
TBLTBL09111114234

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Rielly(1)PPG
    M. Bunting (1), M. Marner (4)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +10 pts
    1-0
    4:54
  2. TOR
    C. Blackwell(1)
    I. Lyubushkin (1), P. Engvall (1)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    9:44

2nd period

  1. TOR
    D. Kampf(2)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.14win prob +11 pts
    3-0
    5:52
  2. TBL
    R. Colton(1)PPG
    M. Sergachev (1), O. Palat (1)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +9 pts
    3-1
    11:03

3rd period

  1. TBL
    O. Palat(1)
    A. Killorn (2), R. McDonagh (1)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +16 pts
    3-2
    5:43
  2. TOR
    I. Mikheyev(1)EN
    P. Engvall (2)
    wristxG 0.95win prob +5 pts
    4-2
    18:20
  3. TOR
    I. Mikheyev(2)EN
    P. Engvall (3)
    wristxG 0.65
    5-2
    19:55

Penalties

TOR 6 PIM·TBL 10 PIM

1st

  • 2:56TBLPatrick Maroon · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 7:35TORIlya Lyubushkin · High stickingdrawn by Alex Killorn2 min
  • 10:52TBLZach Bogosian · High stickingdrawn by Colin Blackwell2 min
  • 20:00TBLErik Cernak · Roughingdrawn by Justin Holl2 min

2nd

  • 1:35TBLRyan McDonagh · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 9:35TORJustin Holl · Holdingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 11:31TBLOndrej Palat · Boardingdrawn by Ondrej Kase2 min

3rd

  • 12:14TORJake Muzzin · Hookingdrawn by Nick Paul2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalTOR goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Colin Blackwell, 1st 9:44 — TOR 58% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Point · On goal · xG 0.22O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.17S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.16N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.16B. Point · On goal · xG 0.16B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.15B. Point · On goal · xG 0.15A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.14R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.12S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.10A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.10O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.09B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.09R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.09S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.09R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.08V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.08N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.07P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.06P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.06N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.05V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.05N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.05B. Point · On goal · xG 0.04R. Colton · Goal · xG 0.04O. Palat · Goal · xG 0.04N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.04N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.03C. Foote · Missed · xG 0.03V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.03A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.03R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.03A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.03P. Bellemare · Missed · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.02P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Bogosian · Missed · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.00A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL2 G · 3.0 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsTBL
5.43 G
All situations
2 G3.0
1.82 G
Even strength
1 G2.3
1.21 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.50 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR58%42%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.42 – 2.96

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsTBL
36
Shots on goal
34
51%
Faceoffs
49%
1/5
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
10
36
Hits
41
17
Blocked shots
9
4
Giveaways
4
4
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD101+110.09310—23:30
16M. MarnerR011070.61140—22:43
34A. MatthewsC000050.913105022:20
8J. MuzzinD000+200.00522—21:37
78T. BrodieD000+200.04210—20:58
55M. GiordanoD000010.07110—18:26
88W. NylanderR000-130.3011010018:14
91J. TavaresC000-110.011104017:56
64D. KampfC101+320.431005916:58
65I. MikheyevR202+362.00500—16:24
47P. EngvallL033+320.39300—15:09
15A. KerfootC000+130.19210014:07
3J. HollD000+100.00312—13:40
25O. KaseR000-110.02010—12:44
46I. LyubushkinD011+100.00212—12:32
58M. BuntingL011000.03110—12:24
19J. SpezzaC000020.151007508:23
11C. BlackwellC101+120.181005006:27
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
36J. Campbell(W)34322.9412.97+0.9760:00

Series

TBL leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).