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Lightning at Maple Leafs
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸5
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
FinalTV ESPN2, BSSUN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-3. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Corey Perry's goal at 2:21 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 63% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.2 to 2.8; shots on goal were TBL 34, TOR 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 31 of 34 (.912); Jack Campbell stopped 29 of 34 (.853), 1.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Victor Hedman (1 G, 3 A), 2. Nikita Kucherov (1 G, 2 A), 3. Mitch Marner (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    V. Hedman1 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL19214211534
TORTOR01318213334

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    V. Hedman(1)PPG
    A. Killorn (1)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    19:57

2nd period

  1. TBL
    C. Perry(1)
    V. Hedman (1)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    2:21
  2. TOR
    M. Bunting(1)
    M. Marner (3), A. Matthews (2)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    7:47
  3. TBL
    N. Kucherov(1)PPG
    V. Hedman (2), S. Stamkos (1)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +13 pts
    3-1
    9:57

3rd period

  1. TBL
    B. Hagel(1)
    N. Paul (1), N. Kucherov (1)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +8 pts
    4-1
    1:33
  2. TBL
    B. Point(1)PPG
    N. Kucherov (2), V. Hedman (3)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +1 pts
    5-1
    5:38
  3. TOR
    M. Marner(2)
    J. Muzzin (1), A. Matthews (3)
    wristxG 0.02
    5-2
    11:53
  4. TOR
    A. Kerfoot(1)SHG
    T. Brodie (1)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +1 pts
    5-3
    15:43

Penalties

TBL 8 PIM·TOR 14 PIM

1st

  • 5:46TBLserved by C. Perry · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 11:00TBLPatrick Maroon · Roughingdrawn by Jack Campbell2 min
  • 15:16TORMark Giordano · Holdingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 19:15TORAlexander Kerfoot · Holdingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min

2nd

  • 9:28TORWayne Simmonds · Roughingdrawn by Pierre-Edouard Bellemare2 min
  • 11:00TORIlya Lyubushkin · Hookingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 15:59TBLPierre-Edouard Bellemare · Holdingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

3rd

  • 2:08TORWilliam Nylander · Trippingdrawn by Pierre-Edouard Bellemare2 min
  • 5:01TORWayne Simmonds · Cross checkingdrawn by Corey Perry2 min
  • 14:54TORMichael Bunting · Slashingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min
  • 17:25TBLBrayden Point · Slashingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalTBL goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Corey Perry, 2nd 2:21 — TBL 63% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.21P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.20A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.16T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.14A. Kerfoot · Goal · xG 0.11O. Kase · Missed · xG 0.11J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.11A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.10T. Liljegren · Missed · xG 0.09C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.08A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.08M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.08D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.08T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.07J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.07A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.07M. Bunting · Goal · xG 0.06I. Mikheyev · Missed · xG 0.06W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.05P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.04A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.04W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.04P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.04W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.04P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.03M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.03M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.02M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.02M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.02T. Liljegren · Missed · xG 0.02A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.02M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.02T. Liljegren · Missed · xG 0.01T. Liljegren · Missed · xG 0.01I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.00M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.00M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.00M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR3 G · 2.8 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsTOR
3.25 G
All situations
3 G2.8
1.72 G
Even strength
2 G1.6
1.13 G
Power play
0 G1.0
0.40 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL57%43%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.11 – 2.70

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsTOR
34
Shots on goal
34
45%
Faceoffs
55%
3/7
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
14
39
Hits
36
17
Blocked shots
8
6
Giveaways
8
4
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD134+130.28040—23:42
81E. CernakD000+240.07730—21:59
17A. KillornL011-110.06320—21:31
98M. SergachevD000-100.00210—21:26
27R. McDonaghD000-210.12020—21:12
86N. KucherovR123-140.49000—19:51
20N. PaulL011000.003004319:11
21B. PointC101-160.741125019:08
71A. CirelliC000020.165101319:04
91S. StamkosC011-200.002005617:51
18O. PalatL000-100.02510—16:03
79R. ColtonC000-120.19400011:46
52C. FooteD000010.06110—11:45
24Z. BogosianD000-110.03210—11:22
10C. PerryR101+140.37000—11:08
38B. HagelL101050.60300—10:38
41P. BellemareL000+100.000026708:42
14P. MaroonL000+100.0010210005:41
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)34313.9122.75-0.2560:00

Series

TBL leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).