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Senators at Flames
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
1
Calgary Flames
▸6
FinalTV ESPN+, SNW·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Ottawa Senators 6-1. The Flames scored first and never trailed. The Flames led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mikael Backlund's goal at 0:17 of the second period, which took the Flames' chances from 69% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 3.4 to 1.5; shots on goal were OTT 20, CGY 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 82% of the time. Anton Forsberg stopped 19 of 23 (.826), 1.8 goals below expected; Jacob Markstrom stopped 19 of 20 (.950). Three stars: 1. Johnny Gaudreau (1 G, 2 A), 2. Matthew Tkachuk (1 G, 2 A), 3. Mark Giordano (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    J. Gaudreau1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    CGY
    M. Tkachuk1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    M. Giordano1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT0311205120
CGYCGY11031828636

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    J. Gaudreau(19)
    M. Giordano (16), M. Tkachuk (25)
    backhandxG 0.17win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    10:39

2nd period

  1. CGY
    M. Backlund(9)
    A. Mangiapane (14), J. Nordstrom (4)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    0:17
  2. CGY
    M. Tkachuk(11)
    J. Gaudreau (22), R. Andersson (16)
    wristxG 0.28win prob +9 pts
    0-3
    4:38
  3. CGY
    M. Stone(2)
    G. Gawdin (1), M. Lucic (12)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +3 pts
    0-4
    10:05
  4. OTT
    J. Norris(16)
    D. Batherson (17)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +3 pts
    1-4
    11:06

3rd period

  1. CGY
    D. Dube(10)
    D. Ryan (8)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +1 pts
    1-5
    6:45
  2. CGY
    M. Giordano(9)PPG
    M. Tkachuk (26), J. Gaudreau (23)
    wristxG 0.10
    1-6
    13:53

Penalties

OTT 4 PIM·CGY 8 PIM

2nd

  • 7:20OTTArtem Zub · Cross checkingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
  • 7:20CGYMatthew Tkachuk · Slashingdrawn by Artem Zub2 min
  • 17:48CGYMilan Lucic · Hookingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min

3rd

  • 1:11CGYNikita Nesterov · Interferencedrawn by Colin White2 min
  • 10:21CGYBrett Ritchie · Trippingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 12:45OTTBrady Tkachuk · Slashingdrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalOTT goalFinal: CGY 100%

Biggest swing: Mikael Backlund, 2nd 0:17 — CGY 69% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.28M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.20S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.17J. Gaudreau · Goal · xG 0.16D. Dube · Goal · xG 0.16M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.14M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.14A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.13J. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.13B. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.12E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.11G. Gawdin · On goal · xG 0.11M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.11J. Nordstrom · On goal · xG 0.10M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.10M. Giordano · Goal · xG 0.09J. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.09E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.08M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.08M. Backlund · Goal · xG 0.07J. Nordstrom · Missed · xG 0.07M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.06M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.06S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.05M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.05D. Dube · Missed · xG 0.05M. Stone · Goal · xG 0.04A. Mangiapane · Missed · xG 0.04C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.04C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.03M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.03M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.03M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.03D. Dube · Missed · xG 0.03M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.03D. Dube · Missed · xG 0.02N. Nesterov · Missed · xG 0.02M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.02M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.02O. Kylington · On goal · xG 0.02M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.01M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.01J. Nordstrom · On goal · xG 0.01M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.01M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.01O. Kylington · On goal · xG 0.01D. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.01B. Ritchie · Missed · xG 0.01N. Nesterov · Missed · xG 0.01J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY6 G · 3.4 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsCGY
1.51 G
All situations
6 G3.4
1.01 G
Even strength
5 G3.1
0.50 G
Power play
1 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT18%82%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.45 – 3.42

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsCGY
20
Shots on goal
36
57%
Faceoffs
43%
0/3
Power play
1/1
4
Penalty minutes
8
13
Hits
21
9
Blocked shots
6
17
Giveaways
23
9
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2A. ZubD000-310.01132—22:22
26E. BrannstromD000-110.01010—22:10
22N. ZaitsevD000-210.02020—19:51
98V. MeteD000-110.01010—19:08
9J. NorrisC101-110.141106818:01
48J. Bernard-DockerD000+130.07010—17:42
28C. BrownR000-110.11000—17:31
7B. TkachukL000-160.61302—17:27
19D. BathersonR011-120.13200—17:14
36C. WhiteC000-210.101006516:49
13N. PaulL000-210.0430010016:23
18T. StützleC000-200.00000016:00
57S. PintoC000-110.080004015:07
63E. DadonovL000-100.13100—14:01
52O. AlsingD000-200.00100—13:17
71C. TierneyC000000.000003811:22
59A. FormentonL000000.00000—11:20
10R. DzingelC000000.00000011:07
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31A. Forsberg(L)23194.8262.22-1.7830:05
32F. Gustavsson13112.8461.21-0.7929:55

Season series

OTT leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).