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Flames at Senators
NHL

Calgary Flames at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
1
Ottawa Senators
▸2
FinalTV SNF, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Calgary Flames 2-1. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Chris Tierney's goal at 17:24 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 52% to 93%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 2.0 to 1.6; shots on goal were CGY 36, OTT 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Jacob Markstrom stopped 21 of 23 (.913); Filip Gustavsson stopped 35 of 36 (.972), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Filip Gustavsson (35 saves, .972), 2. Austin Watson (1 A), 3. Noah Hanifin.

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    F. Gustavsson35 saves, .972
  2. ★★
    OTT
    A. Watson1 A
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    N. Hanifin

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY013013110136
OTTOTT1120417223

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    R. Dzingel(7)
    A. Watson (7), M. Reilly (12)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    10:23

3rd period

  1. CGY
    J. Gaudreau(13)
    M. Lucic (7), N. Nesterov (3)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +36 pts
    1-1
    14:54
  2. OTT
    C. Tierney(4)
    T. Stützle (13), M. Reilly (13)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +41 pts
    1-2
    17:24

Penalties

CGY 4 PIM·OTT 2 PIM

1st

  • 14:00OTTChristian Wolanin · Trippingdrawn by Josh Leivo2 min
  • 16:04CGYRasmus Andersson · Hookingdrawn by Connor Brown2 min

2nd

  • 4:49CGYAndrew Mangiapane · Interferencedrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalCGY goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Chris Tierney, 3rd 17:24 — OTT 52% → 93%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.21J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.19C. White · On goal · xG 0.15R. Dzingel · Goal · xG 0.09T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.08C. Wolanin · On goal · xG 0.08C. Bishop · Missed · xG 0.07J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.07B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.07J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.07R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.06C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.05R. Dzingel · Missed · xG 0.05C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.05A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.04C. Tierney · Goal · xG 0.04N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.03T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.03T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.02C. White · On goal · xG 0.02J. Brown · Missed · xG 0.02N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.02B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.02N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.01M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.01N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.01M. Reilly · Missed · xG 0.01M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.00D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT2 G · 1.6 xG · 30 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsOTT
2.01 G
All situations
2 G1.6
1.71 G
Even strength
2 G1.4
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY59%41%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.03 – 1.58

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsOTT
36
Shots on goal
23
63%
Faceoffs
37%
0/1
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
29
Hits
31
11
Blocked shots
18
10
Giveaways
18
7
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55N. HanifinD000050.17110—22:55
8C. TanevD000030.12200—22:04
5M. GiordanoD000-230.07040—21:03
4R. AnderssonD000-210.02032—20:19
13J. GaudreauL101040.28100—18:44
23S. MonahanC000010.071005818:20
11M. BacklundC000040.092005717:21
28E. LindholmC000-130.161006917:07
17M. LucicL011010.02200—17:03
93S. BennettC000-120.15100016:28
6J. VälimäkiD000+120.02010—16:25
89N. NesterovD011+100.07200—15:44
19M. TkachukL000010.35010—15:25
88A. MangiapaneL000-110.07302—14:50
29D. DubeC000020.12200014:39
10D. RyanC000020.1110010010:47
27J. LeivoL000000.00410—09:27
36Z. RinaldoC000010.15600009:16
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
25J. Markstrom(L)23212.9131.58-0.4258:03

Season series

OTT leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).