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Flames at Senators
NHL

Calgary Flames at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
1
Ottawa Senators
▸6
FinalTV SNW, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Calgary Flames 6-1. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Connor Brown's goal at 4:39 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 70% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 2.1 to 1.8; shots on goal were CGY 30, OTT 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. David Rittich stopped 16 of 20 (.800), 2.9 goals below expected; Matt Murray stopped 29 of 30 (.967), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Brady Tkachuk, 2. Colin White (2 G), 3. Erik Gudbranson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk
  2. ★★
    OTT
    C. White2 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    E. Gudbranson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY05110015130
OTTOTT21321028631

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    D. Batherson(6)
    T. Stützle (6), A. Anisimov (2)
    snapxG 0.30win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    7:45
  2. OTT
    E. Gudbranson(1)
    C. Tierney (6)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    9:27

2nd period

  1. CGY
    M. Lucic(5)
    D. Dube (4), C. Tanev (3)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    1:41
  2. OTT
    C. Brown(5)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.16win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    4:39
  3. OTT
    E. Brannstrom(2)
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.00win prob +9 pts
    1-4
    7:24

3rd period

  1. OTT
    C. White(3)
    N. Paul (6), T. Chabot (8)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +1 pts
    1-5
    4:55
  2. OTT
    C. White(4)
    T. Chabot (9)
    snapxG 0.20
    1-6
    14:46

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalCGY goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Connor Brown, 2nd 4:39 — OTT 70% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Batherson · Goal · xG 0.30C. White · Goal · xG 0.19C. Brown · Goal · xG 0.16J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.12J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.11T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.10C. White · Goal · xG 0.09C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.09E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.09N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.08B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.07N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.06B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.06C. White · On goal · xG 0.06B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.04D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.04T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.04M. Peca · On goal · xG 0.04B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03E. Gudbranson · Goal · xG 0.03N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.02N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.02M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.02B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.02M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.02T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.02C. White · On goal · xG 0.02A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.02N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.02B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.02A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.01N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.01N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.01M. Reilly · Missed · xG 0.01N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.01N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.01C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01E. Brannstrom · Goal · xG 0.00E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.00A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT6 G · 2.1 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsOTT
1.81 G
All situations
6 G2.1
1.81 G
Even strength
6 G2.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY44%56%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.82 – 2.10

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsOTT
30
Shots on goal
31
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/0
Power play
0/0
0
Penalty minutes
0
27
Hits
23
12
Blocked shots
18
11
Giveaways
19
6
Takeaways
12

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55N. HanifinD000-100.03200—21:19
8C. TanevD011-130.21030—20:51
13J. GaudreauL000-110.24110—20:20
5M. GiordanoD000-420.03010—20:15
23S. MonahanC000020.394104720:12
4R. AnderssonD000-410.04100—19:48
28E. LindholmC000000.001005319:09
88A. MangiapaneL000-120.12000—18:59
89N. NesterovD000040.07000—18:58
19M. TkachukL000-140.10100—18:31
6J. VälimäkiD000040.06220—18:26
11M. BacklundC000-310.102006015:05
93S. BennettC000-110.172306714:28
29D. DubeC011-300.00210011:05
17M. LucicL101-230.1830010010:52
42G. GawdinC000-100.053006010:47
20J. NordstromC000-120.06200010:17
53B. RobinsonR000-100.00100—10:15
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
33D. Rittich(L)20164.8001.12-2.8831:47
50A. Zagidulin1192.8180.98-1.0228:13

Season series

OTT leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).