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Senators at Flames
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Calgary Flames

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Ottawa Senators
▸4
Calgary Flames
2
FinalTV ESPN+, SNF·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Calgary Flames 4-2. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Connor Brown's goal at 19:04 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 44% to 67%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 2.8 to 2.3; shots on goal were OTT 20, CGY 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Matt Murray stopped 26 of 28 (.929), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Jacob Markstrom stopped 16 of 19 (.842), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Connor Brown (2 G), 2. Matt Murray (26 saves, .929), 3. Brady Tkachuk (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    C. Brown2 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    M. Murray26 saves, .929
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT1111524420
CGYCGY1110918228

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(15)
    J. Norris (16)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    9:50
  2. CGY
    E. Lindholm(13)
    J. Gaudreau (18), M. Giordano (15)
    wristxG 0.29win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    11:23

2nd period

  1. OTT
    C. Brown(15)SHG
    N. Paul (11)
    backhandxG 0.07win prob +23 pts
    2-1
    19:04

3rd period

  1. OTT
    J. Norris(13)PPG
    E. Brannstrom (6), T. Stützle (17)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +13 pts
    3-1
    7:52
  2. CGY
    M. Lucic(8)
    M. Stone (1), M. Backlund (19)
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
    3-2
    10:47
  3. OTT
    C. Brown(16)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.51win prob +5 pts
    4-2
    18:25

Penalties

OTT 13 PIM·CGY 9 PIM

1st

  • 4:45CGYJuuso Välimäki · Holdingdrawn by Colin White2 min
  • 19:10CGYBrett Ritchie · Fightingdrawn by Joshua Brown5 min
  • 19:10OTTJoshua Brown · Fightingdrawn by Brett Ritchie5 min

2nd

  • 11:04OTTErik Brannstrom · Trippingdrawn by Elias Lindholm2 min
  • 18:19OTTErik Brannstrom · Holdingdrawn by Sean Monahan2 min

3rd

  • 2:37OTTNick Paul · High stickingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
  • 4:38OTTConnor Brown · Trippingdrawn by Dillon Dube2 min
  • 6:31CGYJosh Leivo · Trippingdrawn by Artem Zub2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalOTT goalFinal: CGY 0%

Biggest swing: Connor Brown, 2nd 19:04 — OTT 44% → 67%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.30E. Lindholm · Goal · xG 0.29A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.18E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.14J. Välimäki · Missed · xG 0.13J. Leivo · Missed · xG 0.12A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.12M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.10E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.10E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.10M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.10A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.09M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.09A. Mangiapane · Missed · xG 0.08M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.08A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.07M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.07R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.07A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.06M. Lucic · Goal · xG 0.06A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.06C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.06M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.05M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.04M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.04M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.03R. Andersson · Missed · xG 0.03E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.03M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.02B. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.02B. Ritchie · Missed · xG 0.02M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.02M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.02R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.01R. Andersson · Missed · xG 0.01M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.00J. Nordstrom · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY2 G · 2.8 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsCGY
2.33 G
All situations
2 G2.8
1.21 G
Even strength
2 G2.3
0.31 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 64 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT28%72%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.60 – 2.75

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsCGY
20
Shots on goal
28
42%
Faceoffs
58%
1/2
Power play
0/4
13
Penalty minutes
9
15
Hits
23
14
Blocked shots
12
9
Giveaways
18
7
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD000+210.10330—25:48
22N. ZaitsevD000000.02110—25:16
2A. ZubD000-210.07130—23:10
7B. TkachukL101+230.472003318:38
19D. BathersonR000030.52010—18:30
9J. NorrisC112+110.090004717:53
28C. BrownR202+320.59002—17:23
13N. PaulL011040.230122015:50
26E. BrannstromD011-110.01104—15:33
71C. TierneyC000000.000003815:16
3J. BrownD000+200.00535—14:16
18T. StützleC011-110.09000013:07
98V. MeteD000+100.00010—12:58
36C. WhiteC000-110.041006012:56
59A. FormentonL000000.00000—12:05
63E. DadonovL000000.00000—11:26
10R. DzingelC000-210.04000011:06
57S. PintoC000010.031104010:49
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30M. Murray(W)28262.9292.84+0.8460:00

Season series

OTT leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).