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Flames at Senators
NHL

Calgary Flames at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
▸6
Ottawa Senators
3
FinalTV SNW, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Ottawa Senators 6-3. The Flames scored first and never trailed. The Flames led 6-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mikael Backlund's goal at 4:37 of the first period, which took the Flames' chances from 58% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 2.7 to 2.4; shots on goal were CGY 38, OTT 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. David Rittich stopped 31 of 34 (.912), 0.6 goals below expected; Matt Murray stopped 27 of 33 (.818), 3.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mikael Backlund (1 G, 2 A), 2. Andrew Mangiapane (1 G, 1 A), 3. Matthew Tkachuk (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    M. Backlund1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    CGY
    A. Mangiapane1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    M. Tkachuk1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY32031305638
OTTOTT110110114334

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    J. Välimäki(1)
    J. Gaudreau (10), M. Giordano (9)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    4:00
  2. CGY
    M. Backlund(4)
    A. Mangiapane (4), M. Tkachuk (9)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    4:37
  3. CGY
    E. Lindholm(6)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.01win prob +11 pts
    3-0
    11:05
  4. OTT
    D. Batherson(7)PPG
    T. Chabot (10), T. Stützle (7)
    snapxG 0.02win prob +9 pts
    3-1
    13:05

2nd period

  1. CGY
    S. Monahan(4)PPG
    J. Gaudreau (11)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +8 pts
    4-1
    4:02
  2. CGY
    A. Mangiapane(8)SHG
    M. Backlund (6)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +6 pts
    5-1
    9:36
  3. OTT
    C. White(5)PPG
    N. Paul (7)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +4 pts
    5-2
    10:16
  4. CGY
    M. Tkachuk(7)
    M. Backlund (7), R. Andersson (10)
    deflectedxG 0.09win prob +3 pts
    6-2
    16:19

3rd period

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(9)PPG
    D. Batherson (8), T. Chabot (11)
    wristxG 0.07
    6-3
    10:00

Penalties

CGY 17 PIM·OTT 15 PIM

1st

  • 4:38OTTAustin Watson · Fightingdrawn by Milan Lucic5 min
  • 4:38CGYMilan Lucic · Fightingdrawn by Austin Watson5 min
  • 5:03OTTThomas Chabot · Holding the stickdrawn by Joakim Nordstrom2 min
  • 12:26CGYNoah Hanifin · Trippingdrawn by Evgenii Dadonov2 min

2nd

  • 3:49OTTNikita Zaitsev · Holdingdrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min
  • 8:24CGYSam Bennett · Slashingdrawn by Colin White2 min
  • 11:06OTTBrady Tkachuk · Trippingdrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min
  • 17:00OTTColin White · Slashingdrawn by Sean Monahan2 min
  • 19:39CGYChris Tanev · Hookingdrawn by Drake Batherson2 min

3rd

  • 8:50CGYNikita Nesterov · Hookingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 11:35CGYElias Lindholm · High stickingdrawn by Austin Watson2 min
  • 19:13CGYJuuso Välimäki · Holdingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 19:34OTTBrady Tkachuk · Trippingdrawn by Mark Giordano2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalCGY goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Mikael Backlund, 1st 4:37 — CGY 58% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.23J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.22T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.17E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.16E. Dadonov · Missed · xG 0.15B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.12J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.11T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.11E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.10C. White · On goal · xG 0.09B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.07C. White · Goal · xG 0.07J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.07B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.07T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.07A. Anisimov · Missed · xG 0.06A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.06A. Anisimov · On goal · xG 0.05J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.04N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.03D. Batherson · Goal · xG 0.02N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.02D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.02C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.02A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.02A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.02E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.02E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.02E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.01D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.01A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.01T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01A. Anisimov · Missed · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.00A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.00N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.00N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.00T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.00T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT3 G · 2.4 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsOTT
2.76 G
All situations
3 G2.4
1.64 G
Even strength
0 G1.5
0.71 G
Power play
3 G0.9
0.51 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY55%45%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.65 – 2.36

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsOTT
38
Shots on goal
34
51%
Faceoffs
49%
1/4
Power play
3/6
17
Penalty minutes
15
15
Hits
23
11
Blocked shots
18
10
Giveaways
14
3
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5M. GiordanoD011+330.08220—21:39
8C. TanevD000010.01002—21:23
4R. AnderssonD011+220.13110—21:15
11M. BacklundC123+440.330106520:49
19M. TkachukL112+230.38200—20:48
88A. MangiapaneL112+440.30110—20:14
28E. LindholmC101+120.330124419:28
13J. GaudreauL022+210.02000—17:34
55N. HanifinD000+110.02212—17:31
23S. MonahanC101+140.391104117:20
89N. NesterovD000+330.03112—16:06
6J. VälimäkiD101+130.23022—15:56
29D. DubeC000020.04000014:00
17M. LucicL000020.15305—13:14
93S. BennettC000010.040027113:13
20J. NordstromC000020.21100010:36
53B. RobinsonR000000.00100—05:31
42G. GawdinC000000.000002005:10
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
33D. Rittich(W)34313.9122.36-0.6459:45

Season series

OTT leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).