Chicago Blackhawks at Vegas Golden Knights
TV ESPN, TVAS2·T-Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
34%Blackhawks
to win
66%
Golden Knights
- Expected goals
- 2.5–3.5
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors VGK.463vs.514win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors VGK-.223vs.1545v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors VGK-.081vs-.050GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors VGKVGK at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersBlackhawks
Spencer Knight+0.06 GSAx/6057% to start152 career GP
Arvid Soderblom-0.26 GSAx/6043% to start112 career GP
Golden Knights
Adin Hill-0.06 GSAx/6052% to start243 career GP
Carter Hart-0.04 GSAx/6048% to start281 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: CHI Jeff Blashill · VGK Ryan Craig
Leaders
vs
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).