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Senators at Flames
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
3
Calgary Flames
▸7
FinalTV SNW, TSN5·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Ottawa Senators 7-3. The Flames scored first and never trailed. The Flames led 5-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sean Monahan's goal at 11:56 of the first period, which took the Flames' chances from 67% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 2.7 to 2.1; shots on goal were OTT 32, CGY 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Joey Daccord stopped 15 of 18 (.833), 1.8 goals below expected; David Rittich stopped 29 of 32 (.906). Three stars: 1. Dillon Dube (3 G), 2. Derek Ryan (1 G, 1 A), 3. Matthew Tkachuk (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    D. Dube3 G
  2. ★★
    CGY
    D. Ryan1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    M. Tkachuk3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT1701728332
CGYCGY41111127729

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    B. Ritchie(1)
    D. Ryan (2), R. Andersson (11)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    2:22
  2. CGY
    D. Dube(4)
    M. Tkachuk (10), E. Lindholm (14)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    2:59
  3. OTT
    J. Norris(5)
    B. Tkachuk (8), C. Brown (8)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    5:25
  4. CGY
    S. Monahan(5)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
    1-3
    11:56
  5. CGY
    J. Leivo(1)
    J. Gaudreau (12), S. Monahan (12)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +9 pts
    1-4
    19:20

2nd period

  1. CGY
    D. Dube(5)
    M. Tkachuk (11), M. Giordano (10)
    backhandxG 0.07win prob +4 pts
    1-5
    7:16

3rd period

  1. CGY
    D. Dube(6)
    M. Tkachuk (12)
    wristxG 0.07
    1-6
    1:17
  2. OTT
    A. Anisimov(2)PPG
    E. Brannstrom (3), J. Norris (10)
    wristxG 0.15
    2-6
    2:21
  3. OTT
    R. Dzingel(3)
    T. Chabot (13)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +1 pts
    3-6
    6:00
  4. CGY
    D. Ryan(1)
    B. Ritchie (1)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +1 pts
    3-7
    7:05

Penalties

OTT 2 PIM·CGY 12 PIM

1st

  • 5:25CGYMatthew Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Connor Brown2 min

2nd

  • 12:32CGYMikael Backlund · High sticking double minordrawn by Chris Tierney4 min
  • 16:58OTTNikita Zaitsev · Slashingdrawn by Dillon Dube2 min

3rd

  • 2:13CGYSean Monahan · Holding the stickdrawn by Braydon Coburn2 min
  • 2:43CGYBrett Ritchie · High stickingdrawn by Ryan Dzingel2 min
  • 15:27CGYRasmus Andersson · Cross checkingdrawn by Josh Norris2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalOTT goalFinal: CGY 100%

Biggest swing: Sean Monahan, 1st 11:56 — CGY 67% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.17D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.15D. Ryan · Goal · xG 0.14J. Leivo · Goal · xG 0.13D. Dube · Goal · xG 0.12M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.12D. Dube · Missed · xG 0.11J. Nordstrom · On goal · xG 0.11M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.11M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.10A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.10B. Ritchie · Goal · xG 0.09O. Kylington · On goal · xG 0.09D. Dube · Goal · xG 0.07J. Leivo · On goal · xG 0.07D. Dube · Goal · xG 0.07S. Monahan · Goal · xG 0.06M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.03M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.03R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.03J. Välimäki · On goal · xG 0.02R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.02C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.02R. Andersson · Missed · xG 0.02R. Andersson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.02R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.01J. Välimäki · On goal · xG 0.01J. Nordstrom · On goal · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY7 G · 2.1 xG · 34 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsCGY
2.73 G
All situations
7 G2.1
1.22 G
Even strength
7 G1.2
1.51 G
Power play
0 G0.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT60%40%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.61 – 2.08

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsCGY
32
Shots on goal
29
53%
Faceoffs
47%
1/6
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
12
16
Hits
16
8
Blocked shots
11
11
Giveaways
14
4
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD011-130.16310—27:06
2A. ZubD000-100.01000—19:45
19D. BathersonR000-110.13100—17:55
7B. TkachukL011-260.703004017:48
55B. CoburnD000-320.04000—17:00
63E. DadonovL000-210.02000—16:55
18T. StützleC000-100.00010016:41
26E. BrannstromD011-130.15000—16:39
51A. AnisimovC101-130.491002916:34
9J. NorrisC112-220.210006416:25
22N. ZaitsevD000-300.02122—16:02
10R. DzingelC101030.12100015:14
36C. WhiteC000-100.002006715:10
16A. WatsonL000-110.24310—14:27
13N. PaulL000-220.100005614:25
44E. GudbransonD000-120.09020—14:09
71C. TierneyC000-120.120006013:16
28C. BrownR011-110.0611010012:29
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34J. Daccord18153.8331.19-1.8140:00
30M. Murray(L)1174.6360.89-3.1120:00

Season series

OTT leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).