Mariners at Padres
Last play · Mariners challenged (pitch result), call on the field was upheld: Cole Young called out on strikes.
Win probability
Padres100%
SEA 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 5 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 52.6% · hold 5.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
Padres favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Eguy Rosario scores. (inning 1) — +17% Padres
9Samad Taylor homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.2–5
4Eguy Rosario doubles (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Dominic Canzone. Brandon Lockridge scores.1–5
3Gavin Sheets doubles (2) on a fly ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Connor Joe scores.1–4
3J.P. Crawford out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Brandon Lockridge. Tyler Locklear scores. Austin Shenton to 3rd.1–3
1Oscar Gonzalez doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Gavin Sheets scores.0–3
1Manny Machado homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Eguy Rosario scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








































































