Temple vs. Toledo Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 0.7 toward 
TEM
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread |  TOL −5.5 | TOL −4.8 |
| TOL win | 65% | 61% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Toledo gets at Temple: 26th at throwing it, against a unit 121st at defending the pass. Temple projects no clear way in against Toledo. Toledo is also 31st on first and second down, against a unit 125th.
HowTOLattacksTEM
- 1
Throw it
throwing it · projected
TOL#26 of 138TEM#121 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
TOL#31 of 138TEM#125 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
TOL#36 of 138TEM#128 of 138
The two teams
Temple
Temple is in year 2 under K.C. Keeler. The way in is 132nd at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 130th at shutting down the ground game.
Temple has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#132projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#130projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#128projected
Toledo
Toledo is in year 1 under Mike Jacobs. The strengths are defensive, led by 6th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air.
Toledo has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#6projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#10projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#10projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TOL Elo 1568, TEM Elo 1323 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TOL -4.8 (61% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TEM92nd18thTOLTOL25th108thTEMThrough the air
TEM130th37thTOLTOL54th99thTEMOn the ground
TEM41st63rdTOLTOL72nd76thTEMStaying on the field
TEM127th40thTOLTOL64th116thTEMTaking care of it
TEM47th109thTOLTOL74th46thTEM
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesToledo leads 7–3 · Toledo has won 2 straight · 10% have been one-possession games
| TEM | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 (#82) | CORE overall | +9.8 (#37) |
| -3 / +0 | offense / defense | +2 / -8 |
| 1.25 | points / drive | 2.10 |
| 3.38 | allowed / drive | 2.90 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 40% |
| -6 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Temple vs. Toledo?
Gridpex's model favors Toledo with a 61% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Temple vs. Toledo?
The model projects Toledo by 4.8.
What time is Temple vs. Toledo and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 3:00 PM ET, at Glass Bowl.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →